NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	91		Excitement	6.6 [275]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +19.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	3.3 [387]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): -22.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.06	-0.02	7	71%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Legler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	11	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	8	58%	0.05	2	-0.08	8	25%	-0.09
Jahidi White	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	15	39%	-0.09	3	-0.13	6	67%	-0.04
Mitch Richmond	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.01	16	29%	-0.16	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.11	-0.03	14	56%	0.19	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	61%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	25	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.03
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	13	46%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	36%	-0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	24.6	14.6	24.6	1.8	29.4	121.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +2.7%

MIL +25.7%

MIL +13.8%

MIL +9.1%

WAS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.4	15.8	101.1	106.5	99.6
season	15.5	15.8		98.8	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.9		100.9	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.4	14.3	15.6	14.1	15.1
MIL	16.4	15.6	17.9	15.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahidi White	23	24	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.15	-3	-5	2	13.7	15.5	-1.89	15.8	16.6	-0.76
Chris Whitney	23	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-7	6	13.3	15.7	-2.41	16.0	16.5	-0.49
Calbert Cheaney	58	59	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-9	10	15.7	13.8	1.93	17.1	15.1	2.02
Ben Wallace	76	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	15.6	12.1	3.53	16.5	15.9	0.56
Tim Legler	58	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	0	-8	13.7	17.5	-3.79	15.6	18.0	-2.40
Mitch Richmond	71	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	0	-8	15.2	14.5	0.74	16.3	16.9	-0.64
Rod Strickland	71	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	0	-8	15.2	14.5	0.74	16.3	16.9	-0.64
Otis Thorpe	70	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	-1	-6	15.7	12.6	3.09	17.0	14.4	2.54

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	79	77	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-3	14	16.1	17.9	-1.80	15.1	14.8	0.24
Chris Gatling	49	48	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-7	22	16.3	16.5	-0.15	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Vinny Del Negro	58	55	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-5	18	16.0	17.1	-1.15	13.5	17.5	-3.98
Ray Allen	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	0	8	16.7	15.7	1.03	16.0	12.9	3.14
Michael Curry	64	59	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	2	4	15.9	17.5	-1.58	13.4	18.3	-4.89
Robert Traylor	34	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	9	-10	17.4	15.8	1.51	17.9	13.3	4.59
Tim Thomas	27	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	10	-12	17.0	16.2	0.80	18.6	13.5	5.05
Ervin Johnson	44	41	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	11	-14	16.7	16.1	0.67	13.0	16.8	-3.78
Haywoode Workman	48	47	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	15	-22	16.3	16.5	-0.13	16.1	14.0	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.71,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.47,0.29,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	92.4%
CHA 95, DET 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.74,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.59,0.55,0.78,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1	91.7%
PHX 99, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	91.6%