NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	88		Excitement	6.4 [315]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIA): +24.2%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	3.1 [332]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -26.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	11	64%	0.20	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.08
Sam Perkins	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.02	-0.01	12	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	16	47%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Chris Mullin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.17,-0.27	-0.10	-0.15	0.01	17	42%	-0.15	3	-0.12	6	100%	0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.12	-0.00	6	93%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	11	67%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	4	78%	0.15	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	16	41%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	17	34%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	24	44%	-0.04	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.8	28.4	20.7	29.2	3.4	37.4	145.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.4%

IND -1.1%

MIA +3.4%

MIA +14.2%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	18.2	17.3	15.8	108.6	113.6	99.6
season	16.4	16.6		105.4	101.3
opponent	16.7	16.0		96.8	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.0	17.6	20.5	19.0	18.2
MIA	18.3	18.4	15.5	17.0	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick McKey	18	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	18.8	18.1	0.70	18.5	17.0	1.53
Mark Jackson	41	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-5	6	18.2	18.3	-0.13	17.0	17.7	-0.75
Antonio Davis	67	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-5	6	17.8	20.4	-2.65	17.6	16.0	1.62
Chris Mullin	35	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	0	-4	18.3	18.2	0.19	16.8	17.7	-0.86
Jalen Rose	51	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-6	8	17.7	19.1	-1.32	17.7	16.6	1.15
Sam Perkins	42	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	2	-8	19.2	17.2	1.94	17.4	17.2	0.17
Reggie Miller	62	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	0	-4	18.1	18.6	-0.52	17.0	18.6	-1.60
Travis Best	40	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	1	-6	18.3	18.2	0.13	17.7	17.0	0.75
Dale Davis	49	50	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	2	-8	18.4	17.9	0.54	16.8	18.2	-1.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	63	65	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.39	12	-8	20	16.6	19.9	-3.37	18.3	17.9	0.45
Dan Majerle	56	57	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.39	10	-6	16	17.4	17.1	0.35	18.3	18.2	0.10
Alonzo Mourning	72	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-5	14	17.3	17.4	-0.14	19.1	12.6	6.48
Jamal Mashburn	69	68	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	4	-4	17.2	17.8	-0.60	18.3	17.9	0.37
Clar. Weatherspoon	25	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	2	0	16.5	17.7	-1.22	20.1	17.4	2.67
P.J. Brown	62	64	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.21	-2	6	-8	17.7	16.1	1.66	17.2	22.3	-5.14
Keith Askins	13	12	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.11	-4	8	-12	17.8	17.2	0.53	18.0	18.3	-0.28
Terry Porter	45	44	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	11	-18	18.2	16.2	1.98	17.2	19.5	-2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.34,0.43,0.63,0.73,0.85,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	92.9%
ORL 85, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%
ORL 95, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.1%