NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	4.5 [565]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +12.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Comeback	1.4 [708]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -19.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.01	0.04	16	77%	0.16	2	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	11	58%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Eric Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	7	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.19	-0.02	-0.09	18	35%	-0.00	6	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.08	-0.03	10	42%	-0.06	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.02	14	68%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	23	58%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	83%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bill Curley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	20	52%	0.10	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.8	24.8	14.8	21.5	1.8	25.3	111.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +41.8%

DEN -6.6%

MIN +0.1%

MIN +12.1%

MIN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.8	93.6	115.1	99.6
season	15.5	15.0		100.7	98.6
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.6	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.5	16.6	16.9	14.8	16.3
MIN	13.5	12.7	13.7	18.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Taylor	35	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-13	7	15.3	16.8	-1.59	16.5	13.4	3.14
Bryant Stith	46	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-12	5	16.7	15.8	0.86	12.8	16.2	-3.37
Danny Fortson	69	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-12	5	16.5	15.5	1.00	13.1	18.3	-5.17
Eric Williams	48	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	-9	-1	15.8	16.7	-0.86	16.2	12.8	3.37
Eric Washington	53	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-9	-1	15.9	16.7	-0.84	16.0	12.5	3.53
Nick Van Exel	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.11	-18	-1	-17	16.8	14.5	2.29	13.6	17.8	-4.23
Chauncey Billups	76	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.05	-16	-3	-13	16.2	16.5	-0.30	14.5	14.6	-0.05
Antonio McDyess	71	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.11	-21	2	-23	16.3	16.2	0.11	14.8	13.8	0.95

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Scott	82	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-2	23	14.6	13.7	0.92	16.0	18.0	-1.95
Kevin Garnett	77	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.16	22	-3	25	13.8	17.9	-4.11	16.9	13.5	3.42
Terrell Brandon	70	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.17	21	-2	23	14.4	14.8	-0.38	16.8	14.5	2.30
Sam Mitchell	66	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	8	3	14.5	14.5	0.03	16.2	16.5	-0.31
Bill Curley	27	28	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.12	5	14	-9	11.9	15.6	-3.78	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Tom Hammonds	59	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	8	3	16.0	12.1	3.91	16.7	15.7	1.00
Bobby Jackson	33	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	11	-3	17.5	12.9	4.52	16.0	16.4	-0.35
Reggie Jordan	25	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	21	-23	14.3	14.6	-0.35	15.5	16.5	-1.07
Dean Garrett	17	19	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	20	-21	12.7	14.9	-2.24	14.5	16.7	-2.23
Andrae Patterson	9	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	20	-21	12.4	14.8	-2.32	13.5	16.6	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 83, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MEM 83, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.69,0.58,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DAL 82, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%