NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	88		Excitement	7.0 [236]		MVP	Matt Geiger (PHI): +21.9%
Miami Heat	84		Comeback	2.2 [128]		LVP	Tyrone Hill (PHI): -19.0%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Geiger	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.22	0.03	0.18	-0.01	21	53%	0.26	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.08
Nazr Mohammed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Overton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	59%	0.06	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	18	49%	-0.07	1	-0.02	13	77%	-0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	4	25%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.06	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Tyrone Hill	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	6	25%	-0.18	1	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.07	0.01	14	57%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	68%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	13	60%	0.05	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	19	41%	-0.13	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	27.1	15.4	26.7	1.8	43.3	141.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -13.4%

PHI +7.8%

PHI +34.0%

PHI +20.7%

PHI +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.4	16.1	15.8	103.5	96.6	99.6
season	15.6	16.6		97.0	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.9		96.8	94.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	16.2	17.0	19.8	16.9	17.4
MIA	17.3	17.3	16.2	13.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harvey Grant	39	41	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-6	16	18.0	17.0	1.00	16.2	16.0	0.24
Theo Ratliff	41	42	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-6	16	16.8	18.1	-1.31	16.8	15.4	1.43
Matt Geiger	61	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.36	2	2	0	17.1	18.2	-1.02	15.5	17.3	-1.83
Allen Iverson	75	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.39	-1	5	-6	17.3	18.1	-0.75	15.6	20.2	-4.63
George Lynch	48	48	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	-2	8	16.6	18.5	-1.96	17.0	14.9	2.17
Larry Hughes	35	36	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-4	12	17.5	17.4	0.18	16.0	16.1	-0.07
Nazr Mohammed	10	10	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	-1	6	16.1	17.6	-1.51	12.2	16.6	-4.37
Aaron McKie	9	10	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	0	4	15.6	17.7	-2.10	17.5	15.9	1.62
Doug Overton	2	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	4	-4	21.0	17.3	3.65	19.0	16.0	2.97
Eric Snow	55	56	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.31	-14	18	-32	17.9	16.5	1.45	15.7	16.6	-0.90
Tyrone Hill	50	53	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.14	-10	14	-24	18.7	15.6	3.07	16.6	15.2	1.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	65	65	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.30	16	-20	36	15.6	17.5	-1.85	17.9	15.9	2.01
Dan Majerle	47	46	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-9	14	16.4	15.7	0.73	17.4	17.4	-0.00
Rex Walters	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-2	0	16.6	15.6	1.02	17.6	17.3	0.24
Tim Hardaway	73	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-3	2	16.5	13.6	2.98	18.2	13.8	4.37
Alonzo Mourning	71	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-5	6	15.7	17.6	-1.83	18.1	14.1	3.94
Clar. Weatherspoon	23	21	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	8	-20	17.5	15.5	1.97	15.5	18.1	-2.54
Jamal Mashburn	46	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	0	-4	15.1	17.1	-2.04	17.1	17.8	-0.74
Mark Strickland	14	12	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	10	-24	18.1	15.7	2.47	15.7	17.7	-1.96
Terry Porter	55	53	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.43	-9	5	-14	15.4	17.2	-1.82	16.4	19.2	-2.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.22,0.15,0	92.1%
HOU 97, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.22,0.3,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.42,0	91.4%
GSW 98, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.28,0.43,0.42,0	90.8%