NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	8.8 [89]		MVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): +40.0%
Utah Jazz	84		Comeback	5.5 [155]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -44.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.32	0.06	0.26	0.01	23	65%	0.49	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	7	69%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08	0.00	-0.09	-0.01	7	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.16	-0.06	0.01	14	34%	-0.12	4	-0.11	4	25%	-0.04

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.4	0.40	0.09	0.32	0.01	12	63%	0.40	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.06	0.03	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.02
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Greg Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thurl Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.08	0.00	8	75%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.44,-0.52,-0.45	-0.45	-0.17	-0.28	-0.00	21	41%	-0.33	3	-0.11	14	79%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	49.2	2.0	27.1	17.5	21.5	2.4	37.3	157.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -42.4%

UTA +38.0%

UTA +28.3%

UTA +27.2%

MIA -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.8	92.0	97.7	99.6
season	16.6	16.4		101.3	102.6
opponent	16.0	16.7		96.1	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	16.7	18.1	21.2	17.1
UTA	14.5	16.0	16.2	17.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	34	31	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.03	9	-12	21	15.6	18.0	-2.35	15.8	16.2	-0.36
Duane Causwell	16	16	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.05	8	-11	19	17.3	17.0	0.31	17.2	15.8	1.49
P.J. Brown	42	40	0.17	-0.68	0.85	-0.06	8	-11	19	16.7	17.4	-0.70	17.9	14.4	3.49
Blue Edwards	22	22	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-6	9	17.1	17.0	0.11	16.9	15.7	1.17
Tim Hardaway	77	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.45	1	-4	5	17.0	17.5	-0.45	15.8	17.5	-1.63
Dan Majerle	80	79	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.38	-9	6	-15	17.1	16.4	0.75	16.0	16.7	-0.74
Clar. Weatherspoon	46	46	-0.68	0.17	-0.85	-0.35	-11	8	-19	17.4	16.7	0.70	14.4	17.9	-3.49
Alonzo Mourning	72	70	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.46	-11	8	-19	17.0	17.3	-0.31	15.8	17.2	-1.49
Terry Porter	51	51	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.42	-13	10	-23	18.0	15.8	2.15	16.2	15.8	0.40

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Hornacek	65	67	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.45	9	-6	15	15.3	18.4	-3.10	16.9	17.7	-0.80
Greg Ostertag	63	65	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-4	11	16.0	16.0	0.05	16.1	19.8	-3.75
Karl Malone	72	74	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.46	7	-4	11	15.8	17.3	-1.49	17.2	16.1	1.09
Bryon Russell	70	71	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.41	8	-5	13	15.6	18.1	-2.49	17.0	17.2	-0.22
John Stockton	57	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	5	-7	16.3	15.5	0.78	17.8	15.7	2.11
Howard Eisley	33	34	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	-2	7	16.3	15.9	0.44	16.4	17.4	-1.00
Todd Fuller	15	15	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.12	4	-1	5	15.2	16.2	-1.01	21.7	16.1	5.56
Adam Keefe	12	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.00	-5	8	-13	16.7	15.9	0.83	15.7	17.3	-1.60
Thurl Bailey	14	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	7	-11	17.3	15.8	1.49	16.1	17.2	-1.09
Greg Foster	8	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	11	-19	17.5	15.9	1.62	16.4	17.1	-0.75
Shandon Anderson	21	21	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.04	-6	9	-15	18.4	15.3	3.10	17.7	16.9	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.39,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.16,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.58,1	92.5%
CLE 99, DET 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.4,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.55,0.58,1	92.4%
CHI 91, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.33,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.43,0.53,1	92.2%