NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	7.5 [182]		MVP	Danny Fortson (DEN): +12.7%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.7 [450]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -44.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Fortson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	11	69%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Cory Alexander	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	7	79%	0.14	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	15	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Carl Herrera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Meyer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.35	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.3,-0.35,-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.01	20	33%	-0.33	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.45	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.22,-0.36,-0.3,-0.39,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45	-0.21	-0.25	-0.01	19	39%	-0.24	4	-0.20	13	46%	-0.15

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.01	7	64%	0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	8	76%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	16	56%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	6	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	16	60%	0.06	4	-0.11	13	54%	-0.06
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	34.3	15.4	25.5	2.5	34.6	138.9
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.2%

DEN -10.2%

DEN -12.0%

MIA +9.3%

MIA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	16.0	15.8	101.2	110.5	99.6
season	15.5	16.6		100.7	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.6		96.8	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.4	17.5	19.3	19.3	17.5
MIA	15.6	14.5	15.7	18.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Meyer	8	7	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-11	14	16.5	17.6	-1.05	8.7	16.7	-7.97
Antonio McDyess	59	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-11	14	17.1	18.3	-1.28	16.6	14.5	2.07
Carl Herrera	11	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-4	0	19.4	17.2	2.19	16.0	16.0	-0.04
Eric Washington	29	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-5	2	18.4	17.0	1.45	17.4	15.3	2.08
Nick Van Exel	75	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-11	14	17.7	15.6	2.08	16.2	14.9	1.28
Keon Clark	27	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	3	-14	17.8	17.3	0.47	14.1	16.8	-2.70
Danny Fortson	64	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	17.2	18.1	-0.92	17.0	13.0	3.95
Cory Alexander	81	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	0	-8	17.3	19.8	-2.49	15.8	19.2	-3.36
Eric Williams	76	74	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.25	-18	10	-28	17.2	19.4	-2.20	15.6	18.7	-3.16

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	75	76	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.20	19	-11	30	15.5	19.9	-4.44	17.4	17.7	-0.28
Dan Majerle	66	66	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.25	17	-9	26	14.8	20.1	-5.30	18.0	15.7	2.22
Terry Porter	53	54	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-7	22	16.5	15.2	1.34	17.8	16.8	1.02
Blue Edwards	27	28	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.31	0	8	-8	19.0	14.7	4.32	19.1	16.6	2.50
P.J. Brown	39	36	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	8	-8	17.9	14.5	3.41	18.1	17.0	1.18
Marty Conlon	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	8	-8	13.7	17.0	-3.26	17.2	17.6	-0.41
Mark Strickland	12	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	11	-14	16.8	15.9	0.93	15.3	17.9	-2.59
Rex Walters	29	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	10	-12	14.9	16.6	-1.77	17.0	17.7	-0.63
Tim Hardaway	71	67	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	11	-14	16.0	16.1	-0.12	16.6	20.6	-4.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	33	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	11	-14	16.9	15.5	1.37	17.0	17.7	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.66,0.65,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.64,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.61,0.9,0.95,0.83,1	92.0%
TOR 94, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.53,0.62,0.84,0.94,0.98,1	91.8%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.4%