NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	4.6 [543]		MVP	Dale Ellis (SEA): +22.8%
Seattle SuperSonics	105		Comeback	2.0 [658]		LVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): -14.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	9	94%	0.19	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	73%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Eric Washington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	10	54%	0.01	3	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.03	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Cory Alexander	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	7	24%	-0.07	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.04	-0.02	9	94%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.02	0.05	8	111%	0.18	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	13	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Cotton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	0.01	-0.04	12	31%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	19	48%	-0.05	2	-0.04	20	70%	-0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	46.9	1.7	33.6	16.0	27.8	1.8	28.0	155.7
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +12.4%

SEA +1.5%

SEA +22.5%

SEA +11.2%

SEA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	14.8	17.1	15.8	101.1	116.7	99.6
season	15.5	15.4		100.7	102.4
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	13.1	18.6	15.0	14.8
SEA	16.2	15.7	18.3	18.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Washington	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-15	17	9.5	15.4	-5.91	21.2	16.6	4.64
Eric Williams	39	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.17	5	-18	23	15.5	14.2	1.37	18.1	16.3	1.78
Danny Fortson	44	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-16	19	15.7	13.9	1.83	17.5	16.7	0.83
Cory Alexander	45	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-11	9	16.0	13.5	2.54	16.7	17.4	-0.73
Antonio McDyess	56	57	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-11	9	14.1	15.8	-1.65	18.4	14.7	3.71
Keon Clark	6	5	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-2	-9	11.0	15.0	-4.02	5.8	17.7	-11.94
Chauncey Billups	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.10	-10	-3	-7	14.6	15.1	-0.44	16.8	17.9	-1.09
Bryant Stith	46	47	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	3	-19	15.2	14.4	0.80	16.2	18.1	-1.90
Raef LaFrentz	76	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	3	-19	15.0	13.7	1.31	16.5	19.7	-3.19
Nick Van Exel	66	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	5	-23	14.1	16.6	-2.54	17.0	17.2	-0.11

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	58	59	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.08	16	-3	19	16.9	17.4	-0.51	15.2	14.0	1.22
Gary Payton	80	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-2	17	16.5	21.3	-4.75	14.9	13.4	1.53
Dale Ellis	48	49	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	-4	21	16.1	18.2	-2.18	14.7	14.8	-0.10
Detlef Schrempf	68	67	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	1	11	17.7	15.2	2.45	14.9	14.2	0.69
Olden Polynice	65	64	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	17.0	17.2	-0.17	15.4	13.3	2.08
Vin Baker	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	11	-9	17.8	15.6	2.22	15.7	12.9	2.77
Jelani McCoy	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	16.5	17.1	-0.59	3.5	15.0	-11.51
James Cotton	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	16.5	17.1	-0.59	3.5	15.0	-11.51
Moochie Norris	13	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	11	-9	19.3	16.7	2.61	12.3	15.2	-2.98
Vladimir Stepania	3	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	14	-15	11.0	17.3	-6.29	7.7	15.0	-7.33
Rashard Lewis	29	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	16	-19	17.9	16.7	1.21	13.8	15.2	-1.38
Aaron Williams	22	22	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	17	-21	16.5	17.3	-0.76	14.2	14.9	-0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.8,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, WAS 124	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
PHI 96, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.8%
ATL 95, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%