NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	84		Excitement	5.0 [496]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +13.6%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	2.2 [510]		LVP	Doug Christie (TOR): -22.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	10	73%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	54%	0.02	1	0.00	3	100%	0.02
William Cunningham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Charles Oakley	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	71%	0.03	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.05	-0.01	10	20%	-0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.19,-0.22,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.06	-0.00	19	44%	-0.05	6	-0.17	7	86%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	18	66%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	9	75%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	59%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	5	71%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	64%	0.05	4	-0.12	10	80%	0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	7	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Mark Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	29.2	15.4	25.6	2.3	29.6	128.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.6%

MIA +3.4%

TOR -3.2%

MIA +18.2%

MIA +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.8	92.3	109.7	99.6
season	15.6	16.6		99.0	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.9		96.8	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	15.0	17.3	15.7	15.5
MIA	15.5	16.2	13.4	18.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
William Cunningham	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-14	10	14.0	15.5	-1.52	11.0	16.0	-4.99
Reggie Slater	10	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.17	-6	-12	6	14.3	15.6	-1.32	14.8	16.0	-1.15
Alvin Williams	57	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.13	-5	-13	8	15.0	16.2	-1.17	14.9	17.3	-2.41
Tracy McGrady	22	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-18	18	15.0	15.6	-0.56	14.3	16.4	-2.06
Charles Oakley	57	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-13	8	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.2	15.3	0.90
Michael Stewart	32	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-15	12	14.8	15.8	-1.07	15.3	16.2	-0.85
Kevin Willis	56	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-7	-4	15.9	14.7	1.23	16.4	15.0	1.47
Vince Carter	61	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	-10	2	15.3	15.8	-0.49	16.6	14.3	2.26
Doug Christie	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.09	-17	-1	-16	15.6	15.1	0.49	15.8	16.1	-0.28
John Wallace	32	32	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	-6	-6	16.7	14.8	1.92	16.3	15.6	0.69
Dee Brown	49	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	1	-20	15.8	15.1	0.74	16.3	15.2	1.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	41	41	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.05	25	-7	32	15.2	16.3	-1.04	16.7	14.5	2.20
Clar. Weatherspoon	51	49	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.13	14	4	10	17.2	14.2	3.03	15.3	15.6	-0.27
Tim Hardaway	75	74	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-1	20	14.9	19.9	-5.04	16.1	12.8	3.33
P.J. Brown	62	60	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	6	6	15.0	17.6	-2.63	15.9	14.5	1.40
Terry Porter	58	54	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	4	10	16.9	14.1	2.75	15.0	16.2	-1.25
Alonzo Mourning	76	76	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.19	13	5	8	16.2	14.4	1.80	15.3	16.4	-1.11
Dan Majerle	49	49	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	17	-16	15.1	16.6	-1.53	14.9	16.1	-1.20
Rex Walters	25	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.10	1	17	-16	17.0	15.4	1.60	14.5	15.8	-1.38
Mark Davis	28	28	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.00	-9	27	-36	15.9	15.8	0.14	14.6	15.9	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
DAL 88, NOH 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
MIN 88, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.97,0.97,1,1	93.4%