NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	7.1 [369]		MVP	Jerald Honeycutt (MIL): +38.4%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	2.0 [540]		LVP	Johnny Newman (DEN): -17.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerald Honeycutt	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.19	0.19	0.00	9	105%	0.42	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	67%	0.09	0	0.00	11	73%	0.04
Michael Curry	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	10	58%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Jamie Feick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	16	58%	0.11	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Andrew Lang	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	5	33%	-0.00	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.00	0.03	15	74%	0.16	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	13	65%	0.05	1	-0.04	11	73%	-0.03
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	14	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	13	39%	-0.10	1	-0.08	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.3	22.5	15.7	25.2	2.4	41.2	130.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +50.1%

MIL +19.8%

DEN -15.6%

DEN -5.2%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	16.9	15.6	117.8	109.9	102.5
season	16.0	16.2		101.1	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.1		109.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	15.6	13.5	15.7	14.9
DEN	17.6	18.7	16.5	15.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerald Honeycutt	43	40	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	2	2	15.0	14.9	0.20	16.1	17.5	-1.37
Terrell Brandon	39	38	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-3	12	16.0	14.1	1.91	16.5	17.1	-0.59
Michael Curry	84	85	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	2	2	15.2	10.7	4.58	16.6	20.0	-3.35
Ray Allen	82	82	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	14.3	21.2	-6.92	16.5	20.1	-3.60
Armen Gilliam	57	59	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	1	4	14.0	16.5	-2.48	16.3	17.8	-1.50
Jamie Feick	39	38	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	3	0	15.6	14.4	1.18	18.2	15.9	2.26
Ervin Johnson	36	39	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.12	7	-1	8	14.2	15.4	-1.25	17.2	16.6	0.59
Elliot Perry	59	62	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	8	-10	15.1	14.7	0.41	17.5	15.4	2.13
Andrew Lang	11	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	11	-16	17.0	14.7	2.34	18.3	16.6	1.69

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	34	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-5	4	17.6	16.5	1.10	15.8	14.4	1.32
Joe Wolf	22	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.09	-3	-3	0	19.1	16.2	2.93	16.4	14.5	1.94
Dean Garrett	48	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	4	-14	18.2	15.3	2.88	14.3	15.6	-1.27
Johnny Newman	54	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.37	1	-7	8	16.2	17.9	-1.68	15.9	13.4	2.51
Danny Fortson	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	16.7	17.4	-0.65	15.3	13.4	1.89
Anthony Goldwire	75	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-4	2	16.6	18.3	-1.75	14.8	15.5	-0.68
Cory Alexander	73	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	16.4	18.8	-2.38	14.4	17.5	-3.11
LaPhonso Ellis	76	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	0	-6	16.4	19.1	-2.71	14.2	18.8	-4.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.2,0.07,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 83, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	93.2%
SAS 75, CLE 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0	93.2%
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	93.0%