NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	92		Excitement	7.9 [236]		MVP	Wesley Person (CLE): +17.2%
Detroit Pistons	90		Comeback	4.6 [147]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -25.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.10	0.01	8	78%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	13	57%	0.11	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Carl Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.06
Cedric Henderson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	10	27%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Shawn Kemp	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.02	19	50%	0.02	4	-0.11	14	71%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	5	44%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	4	90%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.16	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steve Henson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.01	0.05	13	65%	0.10	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	60%	0.04	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.08
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.16	-0.08	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.12	-0.15	-0.02	15	42%	-0.12	3	-0.14	8	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.3	25.5	15.4	25.2	1.5	40.2	133.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -13.5%

CLE +9.5%

CLE +11.3%

CLE +42.6%

CLE +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	17.1	15.8	15.6	104.5	103.4	102.5
season	15.4	15.9		99.4	102.8
opponent	15.9	16.0		101.1	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.9	18.0	17.0	15.8	17.1
DET	17.2	15.5	15.7	14.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Kemp	78	78	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.44	13	-11	24	17.1	17.6	-0.54	16.0	13.9	2.11
Brevin Knight	77	76	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.45	11	-9	20	17.1	17.5	-0.48	15.6	17.4	-1.81
Cedric Henderson	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	-2	6	17.1	17.2	-0.17	16.3	14.4	1.83
Wesley Person	76	74	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.45	-2	4	-6	17.2	16.6	0.63	15.9	15.3	0.56
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	-9	20	17.9	15.8	2.04	17.6	12.4	5.21
Bob Sura	47	44	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.32	-6	8	-14	15.9	18.5	-2.55	14.2	17.4	-3.24
Carl Thomas	3	2	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	3	-4	0.0	17.7	-17.73	12.5	15.9	-3.36
Derek Anderson	9	11	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	7	-12	17.7	17.1	0.60	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Danny Ferry	5	4	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	7	-12	23.4	16.7	6.65	13.7	15.9	-2.13
Vitaly Potapenko	26	25	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.01	-10	12	-22	18.5	16.6	1.90	13.8	16.6	-2.72

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	48	47	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-5	8	15.5	16.1	-0.63	18.0	16.1	1.88
Don Reid	23	24	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-4	6	17.8	15.0	2.78	19.1	16.4	2.75
Malik Sealy	9	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	2	-6	17.9	15.5	2.35	16.7	17.2	-0.41
Steve Henson	1	2	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.11	1	-3	4	5.0	15.9	-10.91	0.0	17.5	-17.52
Lindsey Hunter	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-5	8	15.9	14.7	1.20	17.3	15.7	1.59
Jerry Stackhouse	53	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-1	0	14.9	17.2	-2.34	16.7	17.8	-1.09
Rick Mahorn	35	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	4	-10	14.5	16.7	-2.17	17.0	17.2	-0.16
Bison Dele	63	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-1	0	16.2	14.7	1.48	17.3	16.6	0.68
Grant Hill	71	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.58	2	-4	6	15.4	17.6	-2.26	16.9	18.1	-1.21
Joe Dumars	57	58	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.45	-9	7	-16	16.5	14.3	2.21	16.4	18.5	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.45,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 106, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	92.0%
CHA 93, POR 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.43,0.02,0	92.0%
CHI 90, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.63,0.41,0.26,0	91.9%