NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	5.4 [715]		MVP	Tyus Edney (BOS): +9.2%
Orlando Magic	87		Comeback	1.4 [267]		LVP	Mark Price (ORL): -21.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyus Edney	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	4	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Dana Barros	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	10	61%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.01
Greg Minor	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Reggie Hanson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Travis Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	17	47%	-0.01	4	-0.09	4	25%	-0.02
Ron Mercer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	12	42%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	10	48%	0.01	3	-0.03	7	43%	-0.01
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.05	10	62%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	13	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	16	40%	-0.13	2	-0.03	13	77%	0.01
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	5	25%	-0.06	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02	6	0%	-0.14	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	26.0	17.6	24.5	2.7	37.2	137.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +54.6%

ORL -15.7%

BOS +10.7%

BOS +0.6%

ORL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.6	106.5	94.6	102.5
season	15.1	16.7		100.2	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.1		101.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.0	15.0	19.4	14.6	15.8
ORL	15.0	16.3	17.6	13.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Minor	65	65	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-3	17	14.6	18.6	-4.01	16.2	13.9	2.35
Zan Tabak	44	45	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-6	23	16.6	15.0	1.57	16.2	14.8	1.39
Tyus Edney	28	26	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	0	11	13.1	17.0	-3.91	13.7	16.2	-2.48
Walter McCarty	44	44	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	16.9	14.8	2.05	14.9	16.0	-1.11
Reggie Hanson	10	10	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	3	5	13.6	16.1	-2.46	10.8	16.1	-5.29
Dana Barros	70	71	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	9	-7	16.2	14.5	1.64	15.6	15.0	0.60
Antoine Walker	81	81	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	10	-9	16.2	12.9	3.28	16.3	9.8	6.47
Travis Knight	28	29	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	12	-13	17.0	15.2	1.79	16.3	15.1	1.17
Ron Mercer	52	51	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	14	-17	16.0	15.5	0.48	14.8	16.3	-1.50
Andrew DeClercq	38	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	15	-19	15.4	16.0	-0.59	15.0	15.9	-0.87

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Price	33	34	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.10	6	-17	23	15.2	15.7	-0.51	18.1	14.5	3.59
Gerald Wilkins	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-13	15	13.5	15.8	-2.23	16.7	15.7	1.06
Kevin Ollie	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-10	9	13.6	15.7	-2.10	9.0	16.4	-7.44
Bo Outlaw	69	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-8	5	16.2	13.6	2.59	15.9	15.4	0.53
David Benoit	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-9	7	14.6	16.4	-1.81	16.6	15.1	1.48
Derek Strong	58	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-4	-3	15.6	15.4	0.16	16.3	14.9	1.37
Dan Schayes	36	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-4	-3	15.6	15.5	0.07	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Horace Grant	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-4	-3	15.7	14.7	0.94	16.1	14.1	1.95
Derek Harper	53	51	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.05	-18	7	-25	15.7	15.3	0.40	15.2	16.6	-1.43
Nick Anderson	71	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.08	-18	7	-25	15.8	14.7	1.09	14.8	19.1	-4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 97, IND 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
DET 87, LAL 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	94.6%
GSW 92, LAC 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.4%