NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	80		Excitement	3.2 [1114]		MVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): +13.0%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.5 [904]		LVP	Isaiah Rider (POR): -12.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.04	12	57%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Rick Brunson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	4	37%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	-0.11	5	42%	0.01	5	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.16	-0.00	-0.12	7	31%	-0.03	5	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	9	44%	0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Arvydas Sabonis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.05	10	58%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Gary Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	0.06	19	51%	-0.06	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.03	0.06	14	77%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	13	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	11	56%	0.04	1	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	3	37%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	16	59%	0.04	5	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.6	25.3	15.4	26.6	2.3	24.0	119.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.8%

MIA +3.2%

POR -2.1%

MIA +14.3%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.6	85.1	116.7	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		101.9	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.4		99.8	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.6	19.4	15.0	13.2	15.6
MIA	16.5	15.1	14.4	13.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Brunson	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.37	-14	-18	4	15.6	15.5	0.04	14.0	15.1	-1.14
Kelvin Cato	20	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.23	-12	-20	8	12.1	16.5	-4.39	11.9	15.6	-3.67
John Crotty	52	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.20	-12	-20	8	14.4	17.0	-2.66	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Stacey Augmon	60	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.36	-19	-13	-6	14.6	17.1	-2.50	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Gary Grant	43	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	-18	4	15.5	15.6	-0.12	14.8	14.7	0.05
Arvydas Sabonis	56	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-19	6	16.2	14.5	1.72	15.3	14.1	1.22
Brian Grant	65	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.19	-21	-11	-10	17.3	11.7	5.59	15.9	12.2	3.72
Rasheed Wallace	71	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.38	-28	-4	-24	15.9	14.6	1.31	15.2	13.6	1.59
Isaiah Rider	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.27	-27	-5	-22	15.7	15.0	0.78	15.2	13.3	1.87

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	57	57	0.66	-0.16	0.81	-0.37	35	-3	38	14.8	14.8	0.00	16.5	14.2	2.29
Dan Majerle	62	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.35	32	0	32	14.8	14.7	0.06	16.3	14.1	2.25
Terry Mills	39	38	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.23	25	7	18	15.1	14.6	0.47	17.3	14.4	2.87
Alonzo Mourning	60	58	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.34	25	7	18	15.2	14.1	1.14	16.9	13.3	3.60
Voshon Lenard	53	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.22	17	15	2	15.5	13.9	1.61	15.8	15.3	0.51
Mark Strickland	58	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.18	14	18	-4	14.1	15.8	-1.77	15.0	16.4	-1.46
Duane Causwell	14	15	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	31	-30	15.6	14.6	1.02	16.1	15.5	0.61
Rex Walters	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	24	-16	12.4	15.4	-2.99	11.3	16.6	-5.31
Marty Conlon	18	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.21	7	25	-18	11.9	15.4	-3.55	11.1	16.5	-5.41
P.J. Brown	26	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	33	-34	16.8	14.0	2.79	16.5	15.2	1.31
Eric Murdock	41	40	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.09	0	32	-32	14.5	15.0	-0.45	14.3	16.4	-2.09
Brent Barry	32	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	35	-38	15.1	14.6	0.44	13.8	16.4	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 88, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
NOP 107, GSW 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ORL 56, BOS 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%