NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	104		Excitement	9.2 [94]		MVP	Aaron McKie (PHI): +19.2%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	2.0 [189]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -33.3%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.19	0.02	0.17	0.00	11	55%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	14	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Mark Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Benoit Benjamin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Eric Snow	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Allen Iverson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.05,-0.16,-0.09	0.03	-0.10	0.02	22	63%	0.06	4	-0.15	16	87%	-0.00
Scott Williams	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	8	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	9	33%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	10	33%	-0.12	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.05	0.20	-0.01	11	54%	0.26	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	7	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.11	-0.00	18	47%	-0.04	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	12	39%	-0.17	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23,-0.34,-0.33	-0.33	-0.04	-0.27	0.02	20	55%	-0.10	3	-0.23	16	81%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.7	1.8	28.1	15.7	29.4	2.4	38.3	135.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -1.0%

PHI +9.7%

PHI +42.1%

PHI +0.0%

DET -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	DET	NBA	PHI	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	15.6	113.0	105.5	102.5
season	15.4	15.9		99.7	102.8
opponent	15.9	15.5		101.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.5	16.2	18.2	16.4	15.8
DET	17.5	14.3	16.9	14.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	62	63	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-9	26	16.1	15.1	0.95	16.5	14.0	2.46
Brian Shaw	38	37	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	0	8	16.2	15.5	0.66	12.6	17.8	-5.19
Allen Iverson	88	86	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-4	16	15.9	12.5	3.42	15.9	12.2	3.71
Aaron McKie	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-1	10	15.3	17.7	-2.48	16.3	13.3	3.02
Eric Snow	29	27	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	5	-2	15.5	15.9	-0.37	13.9	16.5	-2.58
Mark Davis	18	17	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.08	9	-1	10	9.3	17.4	-8.07	16.9	15.4	1.52
Benoit Benjamin	43	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	9	-10	15.2	16.3	-1.06	15.5	15.9	-0.48
Scott Williams	70	68	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.23	-3	11	-14	16.4	13.9	2.45	15.8	15.5	0.30
Tim Thomas	39	41	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.02	-14	22	-36	18.3	13.9	4.36	16.6	15.0	1.65

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	40	40	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-11	14	16.2	15.3	0.89	16.7	15.1	1.64
Jerome Williams	23	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-5	2	16.6	15.4	1.21	13.5	16.7	-3.24
Lindsey Hunter	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-1	-6	17.5	13.7	3.89	17.3	14.1	3.13
Joe Dumars	70	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-5	2	15.4	16.8	-1.38	15.5	16.8	-1.28
Malik Sealy	37	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-6	4	13.6	17.2	-3.60	15.9	15.7	0.14
Rick Mahorn	32	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	4	-16	16.1	15.5	0.55	17.0	15.2	1.82
Bison Dele	72	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-7	6	15.8	15.2	0.69	15.9	15.4	0.48
Grant Hill	80	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-4	0	15.7	15.4	0.39	15.5	18.3	-2.84
Jerry Stackhouse	53	55	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	3	-14	14.7	17.1	-2.41	14.9	17.1	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.47,0	92.6%
SAC 110, DAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.37,0.22,0.28,0	90.5%
DAL 108, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.22,0.23,0.05,0	90.2%