NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	9.4 [102]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +46.3%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	3.2 [246]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): -32.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.41	0.11	0.29	0.00	11	74%	0.41	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.25	0.11	0.15	0.01	16	71%	0.30	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.06
Doug Christie	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	3	100%	0.13	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	20	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	11	39%	-0.06	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Jim Jackson	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.00	9	33%	-0.13	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.32	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.32	-0.03	-0.28	0.02	15	50%	-0.26	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.46	0.46	0.17	0.31	0.01	18	70%	0.46	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	9	72%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	53%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Rigaudeau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	22	51%	-0.04	1	-0.06	11	91%	0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	17	45%	-0.15	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	28.3	16.0	28.7	1.8	28.3	127.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +4.9%

SAC +3.1%

SAC +54.0%

DAL -15.6%

SAC +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.1	15.4	15.5	110.0	106.9	101.6
season	14.0	15.1		104.4	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.0	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	10.9	11.9	14.1	16.1	13.1
DAL	15.2	16.3	13.1	17.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	80	83	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.53	7	-6	13	12.6	14.9	-2.30	15.4	15.2	0.28
Mike Bibby	83	85	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.48	7	-6	13	12.9	14.0	-1.07	15.2	16.4	-1.24
Peja Stojakovic	92	93	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-2	5	13.1	13.1	-0.02	15.2	17.2	-2.02
Jim Jackson	48	48	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.48	-3	4	-7	14.6	11.7	2.91	17.0	14.0	2.98
Doug Christie	79	80	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	4	-7	12.5	15.5	-3.06	14.6	18.4	-3.80
Keon Clark	49	50	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	6	-11	13.8	12.5	1.34	16.3	14.5	1.76
Damon Jones	8	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	5	-9	13.7	13.1	0.70	18.4	15.1	3.25
Vlade Divac	61	63	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.16	3	-2	5	13.0	13.3	-0.37	14.6	16.6	-2.04

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	48	47	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.21	-1	0	-1	15.1	15.6	-0.56	12.6	13.6	-1.01
Shawn Bradley	35	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	0	-1	15.3	15.4	-0.19	13.1	13.1	-0.07
Antoine Rigaudeau	11	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	1	-3	13.9	15.6	-1.65	12.3	13.2	-0.94
Raja Bell	38	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.10	-12	11	-23	15.7	15.2	0.48	12.7	13.4	-0.69
Michael Finley	84	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-4	7	14.8	18.2	-3.38	13.0	13.4	-0.32
Dirk Nowitzki	91	89	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-2	3	15.6	13.9	1.65	13.2	12.3	0.94
Steve Nash	78	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.56	4	-5	9	15.6	14.8	0.72	13.3	12.5	0.80
Nick Van Exel	76	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-1	1	15.8	14.2	1.65	13.0	13.3	-0.32
Walt Williams	49	52	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.68	3	-4	7	15.6	15.2	0.48	13.9	12.3	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.37,0.22,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 117, CLE 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.33,0.16,0	91.2%
NOH 100, OKC 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.33,0.21,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.32,0.28,0	91.0%
DAL 116, VAN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.22,0.08,0	91.0%