NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	7.6 [292]		MVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): +21.4%
Vancouver Grizzlies	112		Comeback	1.9 [653]		LVP	Erick Strickland (VAN): -17.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.02	0.13	0.00	13	69%	0.26	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.07
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.15	0.02	0.05	15	79%	0.21	3	-0.10	9	100%	0.12
Greg Buckner	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	16	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.13
Michael Finley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	12	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Howard Eisley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.20	0.01	18	72%	0.39	8	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.03	0.03	20	77%	0.24	4	-0.15	7	86%	0.02
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	78%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	2	67%	-0.00	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	8	17%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	27.4	16.4	22.9	2.8	35.5	129.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +0.9%

DAL +27.5%

VAN -9.8%

DAL +36.3%

VAN -5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	VAN	NBA	DAL	VAN	NBA
this game	14.3	15.4	15.5	119.6	115.5	100.9
season	15.2	15.6		104.6	97.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		103.4	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.9	16.0	13.4	14.9	14.3
VAN	17.1	12.8	16.0	15.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	81	80	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.43	17	-13	30	13.5	18.5	-5.03	15.3	15.8	-0.45
Michael Finley	86	85	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.45	11	-7	18	14.3	14.5	-0.18	15.6	13.6	2.06
Dirk Nowitzki	78	78	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-7	18	14.6	13.2	1.35	16.1	12.5	3.56
Steve Nash	71	72	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-9	22	13.5	16.6	-3.16	15.7	14.6	1.01
Eduardo Najera	36	37	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	7	-10	12.8	15.2	-2.33	14.3	16.1	-1.77
Shawn Bradley	36	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.29	-14	18	-32	16.6	12.9	3.68	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Greg Buckner	54	53	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.16	0	4	-4	14.9	13.5	1.37	16.0	14.6	1.42
Howard Eisley	43	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.25	-15	19	-34	15.3	13.5	1.89	13.6	16.8	-3.17

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	39	39	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.04	7	-11	18	14.5	16.0	-1.56	14.5	14.2	0.36
Tony Massenburg	14	14	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.12	8	-12	20	16.1	15.3	0.79	17.9	13.7	4.24
Damon Jones	23	23	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-12	20	14.0	15.8	-1.82	17.1	13.4	3.71
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	26	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.29	6	-10	16	13.9	15.9	-2.06	15.8	13.8	2.04
Stromile Swift	34	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.24	4	-8	12	15.6	15.3	0.26	13.9	14.5	-0.69
Bryant Reeves	42	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.14	-16	12	-28	15.9	15.0	0.95	14.0	14.5	-0.54
Grant Long	68	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	2	-8	16.0	13.9	2.18	13.8	15.4	-1.59
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	97	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	15.4	0.0	15.39	14.3	0.0	14.30
Mike Bibby	78	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	6	-16	15.4	15.3	0.09	13.5	17.6	-4.07
Michael Dickerson	64	64	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.23	-17	13	-30	15.8	14.7	1.10	13.7	15.5	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 91, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	91.8%
DAL 92, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.23,0.2,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.14,0.02,0	91.6%
MIN 90, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.22,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.27,0	91.6%