NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	102		Excitement	8.7 [138]		MVP	Jeff Hornacek (UTA): +9.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	96		Comeback	2.8 [466]		LVP	Tom Hammonds (MIN): -24.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Hornacek	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	65%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
John Stockton	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.07,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.06	0.02	11	69%	0.17	2	-0.08	10	80%	-0.02
Antoine Carr	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	5	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	40%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	60%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Karl Malone	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	22	53%	0.08	2	-0.06	11	64%	-0.12
Chris Morris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Adam Keefe	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	5	33%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.05	0.04	14	52%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.05
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	53%	0.03	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	14	59%	0.13	4	-0.18	4	75%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	28	43%	-0.07	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.06	-0.18	-0.00	4	40%	-0.12	2	-0.12	2	0%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.6	24.4	15.5	26.4	2.6	31.7	125.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +29.2%

UTA +3.1%

MIN -14.0%

UTA +25.0%

UTA +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIN	NBA	UTA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.6	108.5	100.0	102.5
season	15.9	14.8		108.1	105.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		104.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.0	13.0	14.5	15.5	15.4
MIN	16.0	17.5	13.7	12.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	79	80	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-1	8	15.5	15.2	0.27	14.4	17.5	-3.12
Bryon Russell	48	50	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-6	18	14.3	16.6	-2.27	15.1	14.7	0.34
Shandon Anderson	36	37	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	16.0	15.1	0.93	13.7	15.7	-1.99
John Stockton	63	64	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	-1	8	14.8	16.6	-1.82	15.1	14.5	0.64
Jeff Hornacek	64	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	5	-4	15.2	15.9	-0.75	14.1	16.6	-2.53
Chris Morris	13	13	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	1	4	13.4	15.8	-2.37	19.9	14.1	5.81
Antoine Carr	22	24	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.12	4	2	2	16.7	15.0	1.70	16.7	14.3	2.42
Howard Eisley	31	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	7	-8	16.6	14.8	1.82	14.5	15.1	-0.64
Greg Foster	46	45	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	12	-18	16.6	14.3	2.27	15.0	14.8	0.28
Adam Keefe	68	69	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.14	-8	14	-22	15.3	15.8	-0.58	15.1	14.3	0.78

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	46	46	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.03	9	-15	24	14.1	15.6	-1.51	15.8	15.0	0.78
Stanley Roberts	33	35	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.12	-2	-4	2	17.6	13.5	4.13	15.9	15.1	0.82
Cherokee Parks	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-1	-4	14.9	14.9	-0.05	17.5	14.5	3.01
Sam Mitchell	83	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-6	6	14.7	16.5	-1.81	15.2	16.9	-1.74
Kevin Garnett	82	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-4	2	14.2	18.8	-4.55	15.1	17.3	-2.19
Stephon Marbury	81	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	3	-12	14.8	15.3	-0.52	14.8	18.5	-3.72
Tom Hammonds	62	58	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	3	-12	14.7	15.3	-0.62	15.1	16.0	-0.98
Anthony Peeler	65	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.37	-12	6	-18	15.6	13.5	2.04	15.8	14.5	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.69,0.49,0.67,0.62,0.39,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 83, NYK 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.53,0.65,0.71,0.62,0.37,0.09,0.09,0	92.1%
IND 89, NJN 83	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.08,0	91.9%
NJN 91, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	91.8%