NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	5.9 [607]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +19.4%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.3 [222]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -19.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Sealy	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.09	-0.03	7	61%	0.13	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Bison Dele	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	9	71%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Joe Dumars	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	6	69%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Steve Henson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles O'Bannon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	16	67%	0.14	8	-0.17	7	57%	-0.00
Rick Mahorn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	13	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	11	46%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	7	93%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	63%	0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	13	31%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	1	100%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	13	46%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.09	0.03	19	59%	0.03	7	-0.22	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.0	23.6	13.8	26.4	2.8	31.2	126.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +15.4%

DET +0.8%

MIA -2.5%

DET +31.7%

DET +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.6	15.6	117.0	102.3	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		102.8	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.4	15.7	16.9	15.7	16.1
MIA	16.4	17.0	17.4	15.7	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Dumars	58	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.04	23	-10	33	15.8	16.8	-0.96	17.6	14.8	2.80
Bison Dele	56	57	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.05	21	-8	29	15.7	16.9	-1.21	17.9	14.2	3.75
Grant Hill	72	70	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	5	3	16.6	13.9	2.69	17.0	14.8	2.21
Jerome Williams	47	47	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	6	1	16.6	15.7	0.89	16.5	16.7	-0.17
Malik Sealy	37	38	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	3	7	15.1	16.9	-1.87	16.0	17.0	-0.99
Don Reid	37	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	10	-7	16.7	15.7	0.98	16.8	16.4	0.40
Jerry Stackhouse	54	55	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	12	-11	15.5	17.2	-1.74	15.2	18.9	-3.66
Lindsey Hunter	47	47	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	14	-15	16.6	15.6	0.94	16.8	16.4	0.42
Steve Henson	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	13.0	16.2	-3.21	6.0	17.0	-10.96
Charles O'Bannon	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	13.0	16.2	-3.21	6.0	17.0	-10.96
Rick Mahorn	28	25	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.14	-7	20	-27	17.4	15.5	1.90	15.9	16.9	-0.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Murdock	45	46	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-15	17	14.7	18.6	-3.94	14.9	17.5	-2.56
Mark Strickland	26	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-12	11	13.8	17.8	-3.95	14.3	16.9	-2.54
Terry Mills	25	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-13	13	14.7	17.3	-2.61	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Brent Barry	36	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-8	3	14.3	18.2	-3.91	14.1	17.5	-3.40
Dan Majerle	56	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-3	-7	17.9	14.3	3.53	17.1	14.4	2.72
Alonzo Mourning	66	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-3	-7	17.2	14.7	2.48	16.8	14.0	2.76
Voshon Lenard	70	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-3	-7	16.4	17.3	-0.93	16.3	15.6	0.70
P.J. Brown	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	0	-13	18.1	14.0	4.12	16.9	14.8	2.11
Tim Hardaway	60	59	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.07	-18	5	-23	18.3	12.8	5.53	16.8	14.8	2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.47,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.6%
POR 97, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	92.9%
DET 86, PHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	92.6%