NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	79		Excitement	8.7 [130]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +46.7%
Orlando Magic	76		Comeback	27.8 [41]		LVP	Mark Price (ORL): -33.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.47	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.47	0.00	0.48	0.01	11	58%	0.54	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.11
Eric Murdock	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.09	0.00	-0.07	0.02	19	52%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Dan Majerle	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	27%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.14	-0.11	0.00	7	28%	-0.13	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.28	-0.09	-0.20	-0.00	14	50%	-0.11	4	-0.17	8	100%	0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	10	58%	0.10	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.09
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.06	-0.12	0.02	19	67%	0.12	4	-0.20	7	71%	-0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	41%	-0.06	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	9	47%	-0.00	4	-0.15	1	0%	-0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	10	20%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.11	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	7	-0.25	6	33%	-0.08
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.33	-0.33	-0.13	-0.20	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	3	-0.25	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	30.2	17.7	27.0	1.8	47.0	148.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -7.3%

MIA +24.4%

ORL -22.0%

MIA +61.4%

ORL -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	17.1	15.6	90.8	88.4	102.5
season	15.8	16.7		104.7	100.3
opponent	15.6	16.2		101.4	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	17.8	15.5	16.5	16.2
ORL	20.2	16.5	15.8	16.2	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	31	30	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.36	17	-14	31	17.8	15.3	2.52	15.2	18.1	-2.89
Voshon Lenard	48	47	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.63	-5	8	-13	14.2	18.6	-4.31	15.9	18.6	-2.70
Tim Hardaway	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	2	-1	15.2	23.6	-8.38	17.0	17.8	-0.77
Dan Majerle	65	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	1	1	15.9	17.0	-1.15	17.8	14.8	2.99
Alonzo Mourning	74	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	4	-5	16.0	17.2	-1.14	17.8	12.8	4.98
Duane Causwell	9	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.02	1	2	-1	22.1	15.5	6.61	13.2	17.6	-4.35
Mark Strickland	25	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	2	-1	18.6	15.2	3.45	17.8	16.9	0.94
P.J. Brown	80	77	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	8	-13	15.8	20.3	-4.46	17.6	13.1	4.47
Eric Murdock	26	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.20	4	-1	5	18.6	15.2	3.41	17.4	17.0	0.44

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Benoit	7	8	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-2	1	13.0	17.5	-4.48	11.4	16.7	-5.30
Bo Outlaw	77	76	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-5	7	17.7	12.2	5.47	17.0	10.6	6.35
Gerald Wilkins	9	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	16.2	17.2	-1.00	22.1	15.6	6.54
Derek Strong	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	3	-9	19.0	16.1	2.89	18.8	14.8	3.99
Nick Anderson	69	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-6	9	17.4	15.8	1.68	15.3	20.0	-4.68
Derek Harper	70	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.42	2	-5	7	16.4	20.1	-3.62	15.1	21.2	-6.06
Dan Schayes	70	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	16.5	19.7	-3.24	16.4	15.1	1.37
Mark Price	26	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	5	-13	17.8	16.8	0.94	18.7	15.1	3.63
Horace Grant	73	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-2	1	16.9	18.2	-1.22	14.9	23.1	-8.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.37,0.67,0.9,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 90, SAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.78,0.83,0.74,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.9,0.83,0	91.7%
DAL 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.84,0	91.6%
NOH 85, PHX 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.72,0	90.4%