NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	71		Excitement	5.9 [596]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +12.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	79		Comeback	1.6 [375]		LVP	Cedric Henderson (CLE): -22.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	8	67%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Carl Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	11	33%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	16	44%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	8	28%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.02	20	40%	-0.15	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.01
Cedric Henderson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.05	-0.00	8	20%	-0.14	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.01	18	53%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	1	70%	0.02	4	-0.12	8	62%	-0.03
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	24	53%	0.08	8	-0.20	7	100%	0.03
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	7	37%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	26.4	15.4	27.0	1.7	38.4	133.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +49.1%

MIL +7.9%

CLE -13.7%

MIL +3.6%

MIL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.6	81.6	91.9	102.5
season	15.4	16.0		99.4	101.1
opponent	15.1	16.0		102.8	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.3	17.8	15.1	17.2	16.6
MIL	18.1	16.5	16.9	15.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Thomas	3	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	-5	2	27.3	16.2	11.12	10.7	16.9	-6.25
Danny Ferry	8	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-4	0	13.7	16.9	-3.14	17.1	16.6	0.46
Cedric Henderson	54	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-2	-4	16.6	16.5	0.08	17.2	16.0	1.18
Wesley Person	70	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	14.7	24.6	-9.93	16.6	17.2	-0.60
Vitaly Potapenko	28	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-1	-6	21.2	14.4	6.81	16.9	16.6	0.22
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	80	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-9	10	16.3	19.4	-3.08	17.4	11.0	6.45
Bob Sura	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	16.8	15.9	0.98	16.1	18.5	-2.36
Shawn Kemp	78	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-3	-2	16.4	18.3	-1.94	16.0	22.3	-6.29
Brevin Knight	49	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	0	-8	16.9	16.2	0.69	17.2	16.0	1.25

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	75	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-4	16	16.5	17.9	-1.39	16.4	17.7	-1.29
Glenn Robinson	82	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-1	10	16.7	15.7	0.99	16.2	24.7	-8.55
Ray Allen	63	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	8	-8	17.0	16.0	1.01	16.4	17.2	-0.84
Ervin Johnson	62	63	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.37	-2	10	-12	17.1	15.5	1.60	16.5	16.8	-0.27
Elliot Perry	61	64	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-1	10	17.3	15.3	2.00	16.7	16.3	0.46
Armen Gilliam	36	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-1	10	16.0	17.2	-1.15	18.3	15.4	2.91
Michael Curry	51	49	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	5	-2	15.8	18.0	-2.24	16.5	16.7	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.8,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 96, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%
MIN 86, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.93,0.97,1,0.98,1,1,1	93.3%
MIN 88, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.2%