NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	3.7 [1022]		MVP	Eric Washington (DEN): +6.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	117		Comeback	1.4 [1182]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -13.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	67%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	69%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Joe Wolf	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	12	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	11	91%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.07	10	36%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	7	19%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	-0.02	12	38%	-0.04	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	13	43%	-0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	92%	0.11	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	12	78%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Isaiah Rider	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.01	0.07	21	67%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.08	9	70%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	4	90%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Vincent Askew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	57%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.00	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	1.8	28.3	15.7	27.2	2.5	25.2	130.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +29.6%

POR +10.8%

POR +10.5%

DEN -3.5%

POR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	16.6	14.7	15.6	88.2	128.6	102.5
season	16.2	15.9		96.7	101.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		100.6	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.4	13.4	17.1	19.8	16.6
POR	14.9	16.0	14.9	13.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	38	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.49	-15	-20	5	16.5	16.7	-0.18	13.8	15.4	-1.57
Joe Wolf	16	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.15	-6	-29	23	12.7	17.4	-4.70	13.2	15.0	-1.84
Johnny Newman	50	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.25	-11	-24	13	13.6	20.0	-6.36	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Bobby Jackson	51	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	-26	17	17.0	16.0	1.02	15.4	13.9	1.44
Anthony Goldwire	65	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.31	-18	-17	-1	15.3	19.6	-4.38	15.1	13.9	1.21
Tony Battie	57	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.26	-19	-16	-3	17.4	15.2	2.22	15.2	14.0	1.19
Eric Washington	62	62	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.58	-40	5	-45	17.9	13.9	4.02	14.2	15.8	-1.55
LaPhonso Ellis	65	62	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.22	-28	-7	-21	17.5	14.4	3.18	14.8	14.4	0.37
Dean Garrett	61	58	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.23	-29	-6	-23	17.9	14.0	3.89	14.9	14.3	0.58

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arvydas Sabonis	52	53	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.06	23	12	11	15.0	14.3	0.69	17.3	15.6	1.72
Isaiah Rider	80	81	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.61	39	-4	43	14.1	19.1	-4.99	17.7	8.9	8.80
Rasheed Wallace	69	72	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.18	24	11	13	14.9	14.1	0.75	17.5	13.6	3.89
Jermaine O'Neal	66	69	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.58	37	-2	39	13.9	16.7	-2.78	17.4	14.3	3.09
Rick Brunson	76	76	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.36	26	9	17	15.3	11.7	3.64	16.9	15.2	1.72
Vincent Askew	24	25	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.21	14	21	-7	14.4	14.8	-0.39	13.4	17.7	-4.30
Stacey Augmon	38	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.21	3	32	-29	15.2	14.3	0.92	13.8	18.5	-4.76
Kelvin Cato	22	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.28	5	30	-25	14.3	14.8	-0.51	14.0	17.5	-3.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 77, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
NOP 121, GSW 131	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.9%
VAN 97, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%