NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Excitement	3.6 [1045]		MVP	Wesley Person (CLE): +7.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	109		Comeback	1.1 [1050]		LVP	Sam Mitchell (MIN): -10.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug West	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	53%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Terry Porter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.05	13	65%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	100%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	70%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	59%	0.04	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Reggie Jordan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	7	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	0.05	21	52%	-0.02	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.02
Sam Mitchell	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	5	44%	-0.02	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	60%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	17	71%	0.12	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	16	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Scott Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	-0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	55%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	-0.07	12	36%	0.01	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	8	62%	-0.01	1	-0.01	10	60%	-0.04
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	7	44%	-0.03	4	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	3.4	24.5	15.5	26.5	1.7	41.2	134.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +25.6%

MIN -4.2%

CLE +14.5%

CLE +12.4%

CLE +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	CLE	NBA	MIN	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	15.5	15.6	103.1	114.7	102.5
season	14.8	15.4		105.3	99.4
opponent	16.0	15.7		97.0	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.1	15.6	14.7	12.7	14.7
CLE	14.5	15.0	18.9	14.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jordan	21	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-8	6	13.1	15.1	-1.99	12.8	16.2	-3.31
Stanley Roberts	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	-4	-2	15.7	14.2	1.48	17.2	14.5	2.68
Kevin Garnett	65	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-10	10	14.3	15.5	-1.21	15.2	16.1	-0.96
Doug West	64	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-2	-6	15.7	12.8	2.88	16.2	14.2	2.00
Tom Hammonds	29	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	1	-12	15.8	14.2	1.52	16.8	14.9	1.89
Sam Mitchell	76	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-4	-2	14.5	15.4	-0.89	14.8	17.8	-3.02
Cherokee Parks	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-6	2	14.7	14.7	-0.04	15.2	15.7	-0.54
Terry Porter	62	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	14.2	15.6	-1.38	15.3	15.7	-0.40
Stephon Marbury	80	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-4	-2	14.4	16.0	-1.56	15.5	15.3	0.21

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Henderson	80	79	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-4	18	15.8	13.6	2.21	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	55	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-1	12	15.7	15.2	0.50	15.7	13.4	2.28
Wesley Person	83	85	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	7	-4	15.2	17.0	-1.76	14.7	14.5	0.17
Brevin Knight	58	61	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	11	-12	16.3	14.1	2.26	15.1	13.9	1.23
Danny Ferry	41	42	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	1	8	15.5	15.4	0.09	14.1	15.2	-1.11
Scott Brooks	37	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.11	11	-1	12	14.1	16.3	-2.26	13.9	15.1	-1.23
Vitaly Potapenko	40	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	7	-4	14.9	15.9	-0.93	14.1	15.1	-1.05
Bob Sura	27	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	7	-4	15.1	15.6	-0.49	15.0	14.6	0.48
Shawn Kemp	54	56	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	13	-16	15.6	15.3	0.34	14.6	14.8	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
BOS 76, MEM 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
SAC 101, LAL 124	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%