NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	94		Excitement	10.8 [26]		MVP	Corey Beck (CHH): +17.8%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	4.2 [290]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -37.1%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Beck	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.13	0.00	8	89%	0.35	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.02
Travis Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.06	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	15	42%	0.07	5	-0.24	3	67%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0.02,0.14,0,0,0,0,0,-0.22	0.03	-0.25	0.00	13	62%	-0.16	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.32,-0.32,-0.31,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.18	0.01	12	58%	0.01	4	-0.25	9	78%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,0.17	0.17	-0.06	0.23	-0.00	15	47%	0.30	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.01	14	57%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	5	67%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Grant Long	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.10	0.00	9	33%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	16	55%	0.05	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,-0.1,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.23,-0.23,-0.37	-0.37	-0.03	-0.33	0.01	21	58%	0.07	5	-0.44	10	80%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	34.2	15.7	24.7	2.7	31.3	1.5	15.4	150.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +38.0%

CHH -15.6%

CHH -4.3%

DET +14.2%

DET +17.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	DET	NBA	CHH	DET	NBA
this game	16.9	15.9	15.6	97.9	96.9	102.5
season	15.7	15.9		104.0	102.8
opponent	15.9	15.9		101.1	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHH	14.9	16.8	16.1	17.0	25.7	16.9
DET	17.1	15.3	15.2	16.4	15.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Geiger	41	41	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-1	1	16.4	17.2	-0.78	15.9	15.9	-0.01
J.R. Reid	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	1	-3	16.9	16.9	-0.03	16.5	15.8	0.66
Travis Williams	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	1	-3	15.1	17.2	-2.04	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Corey Beck	74	76	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.33	7	-8	15	16.6	17.8	-1.21	16.1	15.1	1.00
B.J. Armstrong	12	12	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.15	-8	7	-15	19.3	16.5	2.80	15.9	15.9	0.01
Glen Rice	90	92	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-2	3	17.1	13.2	3.97	16.2	11.3	4.87
Anthony Mason	82	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	16.9	16.9	0.03	15.8	16.5	-0.66
David Wesley	96	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	16.9	0.0	16.89	15.9	0.0	15.91
Vlade Divac	57	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.51	-1	0	-1	17.1	16.6	0.50	15.4	16.6	-1.17

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	67	67	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.59	1	0	1	17.2	13.2	4.02	17.7	15.0	2.65
Joe Dumars	85	83	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	0	1	16.4	12.8	3.62	17.4	13.5	3.96
Bison Dele	72	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.61	-6	7	-13	15.7	16.4	-0.70	17.4	15.5	1.95
Grant Hill	87	85	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	3	-5	15.7	17.9	-2.25	16.6	19.4	-2.80
Malik Sealy	45	46	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	-6	13	15.4	16.3	-0.94	16.6	17.2	-0.61
Rick Mahorn	22	22	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.13	7	-6	13	13.7	16.6	-2.87	15.9	17.2	-1.33
Jerome Williams	18	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	-1	3	14.7	16.2	-1.52	17.8	16.7	1.11
Don Reid	3	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	1	-1	14.0	16.0	-1.97	7.0	17.2	-10.20
Eric Montross	10	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	3	-5	16.9	15.8	1.10	13.0	17.3	-4.34
Jerry Stackhouse	73	72	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	5	-9	16.0	15.6	0.36	15.8	20.2	-4.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.93,0.85,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.69,1	89.2%
BOS 99, DET 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.72,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.57,0.73,1	88.4%
POR 97, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.63,0.67,0.58,1	87.9%