NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	98		Excitement	7.4 [316]		MVP	Anthony Mason (CHH): +15.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	2.3 [235]		LVP	Rick Fox (LAL): -25.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.01	10	73%	0.20	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.02
Vlade Divac	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.01	-0.08	0.09	-0.01	14	36%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Travis Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Phills	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	13	58%	0.05	2	-0.12	10	80%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	18	53%	0.01	4	-0.15	7	100%	0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	60%	0.11	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05
Corie Blount	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	19	59%	0.04	2	-0.07	16	50%	-0.13
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	5	17%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.16	-0.00	9	45%	-0.15	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	27.4	14.8	28.2	2.5	41.4	140.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL -4.6%

CHH +17.2%

CHH +35.4%

LAL -2.4%

CHH +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	LAL	NBA	CHH	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	15.6	100.0	93.9	102.5
season	15.7	14.8		104.0	110.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.6	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	13.1	15.2	17.1	14.4	14.9
LAL	14.1	14.8	15.6	13.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Phills	91	92	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	1	3	14.3	22.3	-7.98	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Glen Rice	88	90	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	4	-3	14.6	16.9	-2.25	14.2	15.8	-1.56
David Wesley	83	82	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	5	-5	14.1	19.0	-4.87	14.8	12.5	2.29
Anthony Mason	85	82	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	5	-5	15.0	14.2	0.83	14.6	13.4	1.15
Vlade Divac	72	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	8	-11	14.1	17.0	-2.94	13.5	16.8	-3.26
J.R. Reid	18	17	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	-1	7	17.3	14.3	2.94	16.6	13.9	2.76
B.J. Armstrong	15	16	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.02	5	0	5	19.0	14.1	4.87	13.2	14.6	-1.33
Matt Geiger	28	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.09	8	-3	11	16.9	14.1	2.77	14.8	14.1	0.71
Travis Williams	10	10	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	1	3	16.9	14.6	2.25	14.2	14.4	-0.18

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	66	66	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.27	7	-12	19	14.5	14.1	0.41	14.2	16.2	-1.99
Nick Van Exel	72	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-11	17	14.6	13.8	0.81	15.0	14.5	0.50
Rick Fox	81	82	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-10	15	14.2	15.2	-1.05	15.5	11.8	3.66
Corie Blount	26	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	1	-7	15.2	14.1	1.07	15.3	14.7	0.61
Shaquille O'Neal	81	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-4	3	14.4	14.4	-0.03	15.1	13.8	1.27
Eddie Jones	78	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-4	3	14.2	14.8	-0.57	15.3	13.1	2.20
Elden Campbell	32	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	4	-13	14.2	14.4	-0.17	14.8	14.9	-0.15
Derek Fisher	27	24	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	6	-17	13.8	14.6	-0.81	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Kobe Bryant	32	28	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	10	-25	14.3	14.4	-0.03	12.6	15.8	-3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.3,0.43,0.34,0.26,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 82, LAL 72	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.3%
SAS 113, DEN 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.26,0	92.2%
LAC 91, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.25,0.11,0.11,0.18,0	92.0%