NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	4.3 [919]		MVP	John Stockton (UTA): +11.8%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.6 [344]		LVP	Ike Austin (MIA): -22.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Stockton	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.01	-0.04	8	70%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Hornacek	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Karl Malone	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	21	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.01
Adam Keefe	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	9	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.03	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.05	9	78%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	18	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	9	29%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22	-0.23	-0.19	-0.03	0.00	16	45%	-0.09	7	-0.14	8	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.5	26.3	15.4	26.8	1.7	34.3	134.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +30.3%

UTA +7.0%

UTA +0.4%

UTA +11.4%

UTA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	13.9	15.6	109.6	100.0	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		108.1	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.0	15.5	15.3	18.8	16.5
MIA	15.1	12.2	14.7	14.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Hornacek	63	65	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	1	6	16.6	16.5	0.14	14.2	13.3	0.95
Karl Malone	79	79	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	4	0	16.4	17.1	-0.62	14.3	12.4	1.82
Adam Keefe	37	38	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	-1	10	15.8	17.0	-1.21	15.6	12.8	2.76
Antoine Carr	33	35	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	6	-4	15.2	17.2	-2.00	15.7	12.9	2.80
Howard Eisley	39	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.06	11	-3	14	17.6	15.8	1.83	14.1	13.8	0.26
John Stockton	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	11	-14	15.8	17.6	-1.83	13.8	14.1	-0.26
Bryon Russell	65	65	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	7	-6	17.2	15.2	1.98	12.8	16.5	-3.78
Greg Foster	23	24	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	2	4	17.6	16.2	1.41	14.4	13.8	0.57
Shandon Anderson	36	36	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	3	2	16.2	16.8	-0.56	13.3	14.4	-1.08
Greg Ostertag	40	38	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	10	-12	17.1	16.1	1.01	11.9	15.3	-3.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	35	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.11	3	-11	14	13.0	14.5	-1.55	16.1	16.8	-0.73
Dan Majerle	64	62	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-15	22	12.7	16.5	-3.86	17.5	14.6	2.91
Terry Mills	34	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	12.1	15.0	-2.90	17.2	16.2	0.97
Eric Murdock	28	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	-1	-6	14.2	13.8	0.43	18.5	15.8	2.76
Tim Hardaway	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-6	4	13.8	14.4	-0.60	15.9	18.7	-2.80
Ike Austin	70	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.8	11.7	3.08	16.5	16.6	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	45	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	2	-12	15.0	13.0	2.08	16.0	17.1	-1.08
P.J. Brown	71	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	-1	-6	13.7	14.6	-0.91	15.6	19.9	-4.26
Jamal Mashburn	55	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.01	-17	9	-26	15.6	11.7	3.88	16.9	16.1	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 109, CHH 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
CLE 92, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
IND 108, LAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%