NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	96		Excitement	6.7 [435]		MVP	Fred Hoiberg (IND): +12.3%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	2.5 [674]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -28.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	3	87%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.00	13	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rik Smits	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	17	62%	0.15	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	12	54%	0.00	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.03
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	52%	-0.03	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.02
Dale Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Mullin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	2	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.01	12	76%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.03
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	13	50%	0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	7	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.05
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	11	38%	-0.06	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.05
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	10	36%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	4	29%	-0.10	2	-0.03	6	33%	-0.07
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.20	-0.13	-0.04	18	22%	-0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	28.2	15.4	29.3	1.7	38.5	136.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +43.6%

DEN -2.4%

DEN -11.7%

IND +16.2%

IND +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.6	103.2	91.4	102.5
season	16.0	16.2		105.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	16.1		109.5	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.9	16.8	13.7	15.6	15.5
DEN	13.5	15.2	15.1	18.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	72	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.01	18	-7	25	14.7	18.0	-3.33	15.2	16.4	-1.14
Mark Jackson	72	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-3	17	15.1	16.7	-1.60	15.2	16.3	-1.08
Jalen Rose	55	54	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.29	7	4	3	15.9	14.9	0.98	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Dale Davis	69	69	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.16	11	0	11	15.5	15.3	0.24	15.6	15.2	0.44
Rik Smits	63	62	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.03	13	-2	15	15.2	16.1	-0.88	15.1	16.3	-1.15
Antonio Davis	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	6	-1	14.8	16.1	-1.39	16.0	15.0	0.98
Chris Mullin	37	39	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.09	7	4	3	15.3	15.6	-0.29	15.6	15.4	0.16
Travis Best	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	14	-17	16.7	15.1	1.60	16.3	15.2	1.08
Fred Hoiberg	22	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	21	-31	17.2	14.9	2.30	16.4	15.2	1.14
Mark Pope	9	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	18	-25	20.6	14.9	5.63	14.8	15.6	-0.78

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	30	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-16	21	15.0	15.7	-0.68	17.0	14.7	2.34
Danny Fortson	29	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-9	7	15.0	15.7	-0.67	16.5	15.0	1.56
Joe Wolf	11	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-11	11	17.0	15.3	1.71	17.5	15.2	2.27
Priest Lauderdale	21	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-10	9	17.0	15.1	1.88	16.1	15.3	0.81
Bobby Jackson	75	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-5	-1	15.4	15.7	-0.28	15.3	16.2	-0.86
Tony Battie	42	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	-5	-1	15.9	15.2	0.75	15.1	15.7	-0.58
Dean Garrett	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-1	-9	15.3	16.3	-1.02	15.3	16.1	-0.81
Johnny Newman	59	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-7	3	15.5	15.4	0.08	16.1	14.4	1.72
Eric Washington	64	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.00	-14	3	-17	15.4	15.7	-0.23	14.8	16.9	-2.16
LaPhonso Ellis	63	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.05	-17	6	-23	15.3	15.9	-0.65	14.4	17.8	-3.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.16,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.16,0	93.8%
NYK 108, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	93.5%
ATL 97, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.26,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.2%