NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	1.3 [948]		MVP	Matt Bullard (HOU): +11.9%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.2 [1149]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (DEN): -10.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.03	11	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.14	0.00	0.11	19	71%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.02	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.01	0.05	13	71%	0.03	2	-0.01	5	80%	-0.00
George Zidek	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Wolf	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Priest Lauderdale	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.17	-0.00	-0.06	12	25%	-0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.00	0.01	14	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	8	85%	0.10	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	86%	0.08	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Charles Barkley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	10	54%	0.03	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	17	54%	0.06	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Charles Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clyde Drexler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	67%	0.03	4	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.0	21.2	16.4	25.5	2.4	31.6	121.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +32.3%

HOU +6.7%

HOU +4.3%

HOU +0.1%

HOU +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.9	17.3	15.6	106.3	124.4	102.5
season	16.2	15.7		96.7	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.7	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	17.3	12.5	12.6	13.9
HOU	15.5	16.1	17.7	20.1	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Zidek	9	8	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-16	21	10.9	14.2	-3.31	19.6	17.1	2.50
Joe Wolf	35	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.23	-13	2	-15	14.5	13.5	0.95	17.2	17.4	-0.24
Bobby Jackson	48	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-2	-7	13.5	14.2	-0.69	16.9	17.8	-0.91
Priest Lauderdale	9	9	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-2	-7	20.6	13.2	7.37	15.1	17.6	-2.48
Dean Garrett	59	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.11	-13	2	-15	13.7	14.2	-0.50	16.7	18.4	-1.77
Eric Washington	81	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-10	9	13.5	16.0	-2.48	17.4	17.3	0.07
Anthony Goldwire	47	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-9	7	14.2	13.5	0.69	17.8	16.9	0.91
LaPhonso Ellis	57	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	4	-19	14.0	13.8	0.20	17.8	16.6	1.26
Danny Fortson	60	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-13	15	13.5	14.5	-0.95	17.4	17.2	0.24
Johnny Newman	70	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-11	11	13.9	13.8	0.17	17.5	16.8	0.70

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Barkley	73	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.11	23	-12	35	17.6	16.3	1.29	14.2	12.4	1.83
Emanual Davis	48	49	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	-5	21	17.7	16.9	0.87	14.7	13.0	1.67
Matt Bullard	61	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-7	25	17.6	16.8	0.81	14.0	13.6	0.44
Eddie Johnson	45	47	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	7	-3	16.9	17.8	-0.87	14.4	13.4	1.07
Othella Harrington	41	43	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	12	-13	16.0	18.5	-2.51	14.0	13.8	0.13
Kevin Willis	64	69	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.10	3	8	-5	17.8	16.2	1.67	13.6	14.7	-1.06
Clyde Drexler	72	77	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	10	-9	17.3	17.6	-0.26	13.6	15.1	-1.51
Matt Maloney	44	49	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.21	-6	17	-23	17.1	17.6	-0.54	12.8	15.0	-2.21
Charles Jones	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	21.0	17.3	3.74	8.5	14.0	-5.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	95.6%
POR 87, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,1,1	95.3%
PHX 104, CHI 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%