NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	108		Excitement	8.8 [145]		MVP	Sam Perkins (SEA): +32.2%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.9 [878]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (SEA): -26.3%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Perkins	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.32	0.08	0.24	0.00	9	68%	0.32	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Detlef Schrempf	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	8	82%	0.23	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.00
David Wingate	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	9	33%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	18	59%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Hersey Hawkins	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	10	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Jim McIlvaine	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Greg Graham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.26	-0.07	-0.20	-0.01	19	59%	-0.01	7	-0.25	8	87%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.02	21	59%	0.22	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.06
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	13	57%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,-0.06	-0.06	0.08	-0.12	0.01	10	73%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	0.00	22	55%	-0.03	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.02
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	7	53%	-0.00	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	-0.00	4	50%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.22

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	25.4	15.7	21.5	1.6	28.5	116.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +10.4%

SEA +30.8%

SEA +10.5%

DEN -13.0%

SEA +11.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.6	122.7	114.3	104.4
season	14.9	15.2		108.9	102.3
opponent	15.3	16.2		108.8	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.1	12.0	20.3	17.1	15.4
DEN	17.4	16.8	13.4	19.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	61	64	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-10	24	15.4	15.4	-0.01	16.1	18.5	-2.40
Detlef Schrempf	62	63	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.41	9	-5	14	15.7	14.6	1.06	16.7	17.0	-0.30
Gary Payton	79	82	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-6	16	15.9	10.4	5.48	16.9	16.0	0.88
Shawn Kemp	73	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	2	0	15.4	15.3	0.04	16.7	17.3	-0.62
Sam Perkins	43	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	14.6	16.1	-1.44	18.3	15.1	3.20
Jim McIlvaine	20	19	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	0	4	13.0	16.0	-2.99	18.8	16.3	2.53
Terry Cummings	40	42	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.07	2	2	0	17.3	13.7	3.55	14.4	18.9	-4.52
David Wingate	17	17	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	9	-14	13.1	15.9	-2.86	18.0	16.5	1.49
Larry Stewart	26	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	9	-14	14.6	15.7	-1.06	17.0	16.7	0.30
Greg Graham	19	19	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	15	-26	15.1	15.4	-0.33	17.7	16.5	1.20

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Thompson	11	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	0	-4	16.5	16.8	-0.28	12.7	15.7	-3.01
Kenny Smith	49	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-5	6	14.9	19.0	-4.10	15.2	15.5	-0.30
Anthony Goldwire	42	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	1	-6	19.0	14.9	4.10	15.5	15.2	0.30
Tom Hammonds	80	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-4	4	16.8	16.5	0.28	15.7	12.7	3.01
Antonio McDyess	91	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	16.8	0.0	16.79	15.4	0.0	15.36
Ervin Johnson	91	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	16.8	0.0	16.79	15.4	0.0	15.36
Dale Ellis	91	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	16.8	0.0	16.79	15.4	0.0	15.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.3,0.21,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 103, MEM 100	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.64,0.46,0.32,0.27,0	91.7%
CLE 94, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.57,0.58,0	91.3%
LAC 104, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.25,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.64,0.59,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,0	91.2%