NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	5.8 [623]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +7.2%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	1.8 [435]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -30.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	13	68%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Ike Austin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Keith Askins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
John Crotty	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.22,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.02	18	44%	-0.04	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.03	11	55%	-0.01	6	-0.16	16	81%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	18	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Litterial Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	10	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.04	-0.04	0.10	11	62%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.06
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.3,-0.31,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.20	-0.13	-0.02	15	44%	-0.16	5	-0.14	18	61%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.5	22.4	17.5	27.8	2.6	36.6	138.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +14.5%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +21.7%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.6	109.3	101.1	104.4
season	15.8	17.1		103.1	107.6
opponent	16.2	16.3		102.0	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	18.7	17.6	16.5	17.5
DET	14.7	20.2	16.7	13.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-8	22	17.0	19.6	-2.62	15.8	16.1	-0.30
Tim Hardaway	74	75	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-8	22	16.8	21.7	-4.95	16.2	13.2	2.98
Alonzo Mourning	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-4	14	17.9	15.5	2.45	15.3	18.5	-3.20
Voshon Lenard	62	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-6	18	16.9	18.9	-1.98	16.4	14.3	2.11
Keith Askins	30	30	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	3	0	18.8	16.8	2.07	14.1	16.7	-2.62
Jamal Mashburn	60	61	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	6	-6	17.2	18.1	-0.84	16.5	14.1	2.43
Dan Majerle	35	36	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.29	-8	14	-22	17.5	17.5	-0.05	14.7	16.6	-1.96
Ike Austin	17	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	13	-20	18.4	17.3	1.15	19.3	15.0	4.28
John Crotty	12	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	14	-22	21.7	16.8	4.95	13.2	16.2	-2.98

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	21	20	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-9	12	16.2	15.7	0.56	19.4	16.9	2.49
Michael Curry	17	16	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-12	18	15.6	15.9	-0.28	16.0	17.8	-1.83
Litterial Green	3	3	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-9	12	4.7	16.2	-11.55	6.3	17.9	-11.56
Theo Ratliff	16	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-5	4	17.0	15.5	1.45	16.8	17.7	-0.90
Otis Thorpe	78	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.32	2	-8	10	15.9	15.3	0.54	17.6	16.3	1.29
Terry Mills	49	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.35	1	-7	8	16.1	15.4	0.75	17.8	17.1	0.62
Grant Long	29	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	6	-18	15.1	16.2	-1.07	17.5	17.5	0.04
Joe Dumars	71	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	3	-12	16.5	13.0	3.45	17.7	16.7	1.00
Lindsey Hunter	79	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	0	-6	15.4	19.7	-4.33	17.5	17.4	0.05
Grant Hill	72	73	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.25	-17	11	-28	15.8	16.1	-0.30	17.4	17.9	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.13,0.27,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.03,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 87, GSW 69	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
SAS 102, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
SAS 97, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.19,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.6%