NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	84		Excitement	4.2 [928]		MVP	Keith Askins (MIA): +9.2%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	2.4 [1097]		LVP	Marcus Camby (TOR): -18.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Respert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	12	46%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clifford Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sharone Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	56%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Reggie Slater	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martin Lewis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Popeye Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	19	52%	-0.02	3	-0.04	10	90%	0.04
Walt Williams	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	12	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.20	-0.05	-0.06	15	37%	-0.12	6	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	79%	0.09	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	-0.05	18	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	3	37%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	11	52%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.04
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	10	54%	-0.03	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	150%	0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.4	25.8	16.0	28.2	2.4	31.4	131.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.5%

TOR -3.3%

MIA +21.9%

TOR -8.5%

TOR -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.6	92.3	108.9	104.4
season	16.1	15.8		102.2	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.0		98.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.8	15.0	17.8	13.5	15.9
MIA	15.0	17.7	16.5	14.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sharone Wright	17	17	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-18	22	19.6	15.1	4.52	17.7	15.5	2.21
Shawn Respert	37	36	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-20	26	15.5	16.2	-0.63	16.4	15.6	0.84
Popeye Jones	29	30	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-16	18	17.2	15.3	1.85	17.5	15.1	2.43
Reggie Slater	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-17	20	7.5	16.3	-8.80	7.7	16.2	-8.53
Martin Lewis	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	7.3	16.5	-9.18	8.4	16.4	-7.95
Carlos Rogers	18	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-13	12	14.6	16.2	-1.62	14.4	16.3	-1.96
Walt Williams	75	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	-2	-10	15.3	18.6	-3.22	15.4	18.2	-2.79
Clifford Rozier	39	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.03	-17	3	-20	16.0	15.8	0.15	16.3	15.7	0.61
Damon Stoudamire	81	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.06	-19	5	-24	16.3	13.1	3.16	16.2	14.2	1.97
Doug Christie	71	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	5	-24	16.4	14.1	2.26	16.3	14.2	2.11
Marcus Camby	78	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.03	-21	7	-28	15.9	16.0	-0.10	15.5	18.4	-2.89

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	68	69	0.68	-0.18	0.87	-0.08	26	-12	38	16.4	14.3	2.17	17.1	12.3	4.80
Jamal Mashburn	75	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.01	20	-6	26	16.1	15.1	0.93	16.7	11.7	4.96
Alonzo Mourning	52	52	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.02	19	-5	24	16.3	15.4	0.94	17.3	14.1	3.17
Voshon Lenard	46	46	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	1	12	15.8	16.0	-0.22	17.7	14.1	3.56
P.J. Brown	51	52	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.06	12	2	10	16.2	15.5	0.70	16.0	15.8	0.21
Keith Askins	42	42	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	15	-16	15.8	16.0	-0.28	13.0	18.4	-5.41
Mark Strickland	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	8.1	16.7	-8.55	6.2	16.8	-10.59
Ike Austin	46	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	19	-24	16.3	15.5	0.85	15.7	16.1	-0.44
Dan Majerle	38	39	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	17	-20	15.9	15.9	-0.03	15.1	16.5	-1.46
John Crotty	24	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	22	-30	14.7	16.3	-1.64	13.8	16.7	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.65,0.63,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
NYK 101, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.97,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
TOR 72, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%