NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	10.1 [64]		MVP	Kenny Smith (DEN): +50.2%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	15.2 [53]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -32.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sherman Douglas	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	80%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.05
Elliot Perry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.03	5	58%	0.05	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Chucky Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	5	58%	0.00	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Armen Gilliam	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Johnny Newman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	11	22%	-0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	31	45%	0.20	4	-0.36	4	75%	-0.02
Vin Baker	-0.32	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.23,-0.32	-0.14	-0.19	-0.01	25	41%	-0.27	2	-0.06	11	64%	-0.16

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.5	0.50	-0.03	0.52	-0.01	9	62%	0.65	4	-0.14	3	67%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.00	0.01	9	87%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.01	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0,0,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	27	40%	-0.09	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.11,0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.3	-0.30	-0.02	-0.27	0.01	12	56%	-0.11	2	-0.19	10	90%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	27.6	15.8	24.3	2.4	41.7	140.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +62.1%

DEN +8.8%

MIL -13.1%

MIL -5.2%

MIL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	15.6	97.0	103.1	104.4
season	16.0	15.2		103.9	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	14.3	14.0	14.2	14.6
DEN	12.2	16.4	14.3	16.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	56	53	0.51	-1.01	1.53	0.07	15	-17	32	14.5	14.8	-0.31	15.5	13.8	1.69
Elliot Perry	46	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.47	13	-15	28	14.2	15.0	-0.87	16.2	13.6	2.60
Chucky Brown	9	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-1	0	17.1	14.4	2.74	17.0	14.5	2.46
Joe Wolf	9	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	6	-14	15.9	14.5	1.39	9.9	15.3	-5.39
Armen Gilliam	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.20	-14	12	-26	15.1	14.4	0.75	14.3	15.0	-0.74
Johnny Newman	71	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-5	8	14.3	15.5	-1.26	15.2	13.7	1.54
Glenn Robinson	80	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	0	-2	14.7	14.2	0.46	15.0	13.9	1.02
Sherman Douglas	54	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	13	-28	15.0	14.2	0.87	13.6	16.2	-2.60
Vin Baker	79	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	1	-4	14.8	14.0	0.78	14.9	14.3	0.62
Ray Allen	62	57	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.82	2	-4	6	14.0	15.6	-1.59	13.8	16.2	-2.37

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	89	94	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-5	12	14.4	20.0	-5.64	14.8	11.2	3.67
Brooks Thompson	35	36	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.57	1	1	0	15.1	14.6	0.45	14.6	14.6	0.03
Antonio McDyess	56	60	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-6	14	14.9	14.6	0.34	15.0	14.1	0.91
Dale Ellis	93	96	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	14.6	18.7	-4.02	14.4	19.2	-4.82
Kenny Smith	59	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.47	-2	4	-6	15.3	13.9	1.43	14.1	15.4	-1.21
Tom Hammonds	56	56	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	1	0	14.5	15.2	-0.69	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Anthony Goldwire	37	39	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	-2	6	13.9	15.3	-1.43	15.4	14.1	1.21
George Zidek	2	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	4	-6	9.5	14.9	-5.38	12.0	14.6	-2.65
Ervin Johnson	40	44	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	4	-6	15.2	14.5	0.69	14.7	14.6	0.07
Jerome Allen	13	13	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	9	-16	17.9	14.3	3.65	13.2	14.8	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.29,0.46,0.53,0.21,0.31,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 102, NOK 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.27,1	92.8%
BOS 94, LAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.28,1	91.6%
BKN 98, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.72,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.69,1	91.4%