NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	4.8 [824]		MVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (HOU): +13.2%
Houston Rockets	120		Comeback	1.7 [1139]		LVP	Anthony Goldwire (DEN): -9.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	-0.01	-0.04	10	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	12	68%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	19	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Jerome Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	3	60%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	21	52%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.01	0.04	24	69%	0.16	2	-0.03	17	94%	0.05
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.01	0.04	10	82%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.02	5	110%	0.15	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	11	41%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sedale Threatt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clyde Drexler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	47%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.6	27.4	15.6	25.4	1.5	33.4	131.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.6%

HOU +4.1%

DEN -1.8%

HOU +15.3%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.7	14.4	15.6	101.9	117.6	104.4
season	15.2	15.5		102.3	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.3		103.0	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	11.5	16.0	13.0	13.7
HOU	13.2	14.8	13.4	16.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	34	33	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.21	9	-24	33	13.2	13.9	-0.74	16.1	13.6	2.45
Jerome Allen	35	35	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.16	7	-22	29	12.9	14.1	-1.14	15.2	14.0	1.17
George Zidek	25	24	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-17	19	10.7	14.6	-3.90	13.5	14.7	-1.16
Kenny Smith	70	68	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-19	23	12.4	16.3	-3.87	15.0	13.2	1.84
Ervin Johnson	38	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	3	-21	15.8	12.4	3.44	14.0	14.7	-0.71
Anthony Goldwire	33	34	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	4	-23	16.3	12.4	3.87	13.2	15.0	-1.84
LaPhonso Ellis	101	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	-3	-9	13.8	6.0	7.82	14.5	10.0	4.52
Antonio McDyess	100	98	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.05	-17	2	-19	13.6	17.3	-3.77	14.4	15.5	-1.11
Dale Ellis	79	78	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	0.20	-31	16	-47	14.1	12.4	1.63	13.8	16.4	-2.60

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	84	86	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.05	24	-9	33	14.7	13.3	1.40	13.5	14.6	-1.17
Hakeem Olajuwon	82	83	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.08	22	-7	29	14.0	16.2	-2.20	14.3	11.1	3.19
Matt Maloney	65	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.08	19	-4	23	14.1	14.9	-0.81	13.8	13.4	0.42
Clyde Drexler	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	3	9	14.3	14.9	-0.65	14.3	11.9	2.46
Othella Harrington	68	69	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	9	-3	14.9	13.6	1.31	14.4	12.1	2.32
Matt Bullard	40	41	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	17	-19	14.4	14.5	-0.09	11.2	15.3	-4.11
Sedale Threatt	39	41	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.05	-1	16	-17	14.7	14.3	0.42	13.0	14.1	-1.03
Kevin Willis	11	10	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	15	-15	15.5	14.3	1.15	14.3	13.6	0.70
Eddie Johnson	44	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	20	-25	14.4	14.5	-0.12	13.1	14.1	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, IND 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	95.1%
NJN 88, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
MIN 92, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%