NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	9.2 [100]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +8.3%
Boston Celtics	99		Comeback	1.9 [809]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -33.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.14	-0.05	0.01	15	73%	0.16	1	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.01	-0.00	10	74%	0.12	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Dan Schayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	4	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	59%	0.06	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.02
Rony Seikaly	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.04	-0.01	16	47%	0.07	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	9	50%	-0.02	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Hamer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brett Szabo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	10	55%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	3	-0.23	4	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.15	0.02	11	57%	0.03	2	-0.22	8	87%	0.06
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.01	18	49%	-0.07	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	24	37%	-0.21	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	22.2	15.6	25.2	1.7	36.0	127.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +50.9%

BOS -4.4%

BOS -33.7%

ORL +36.0%

ORL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.6	110.6	104.2	104.4
season	16.4	14.8		102.9	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.5		109.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	15.8	13.7	17.5	15.5
BOS	14.0	16.2	14.5	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.35	7	-2	9	15.1	18.4	-3.32	14.2	19.2	-4.99
Derek Strong	33	31	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-1	7	15.6	15.5	0.13	15.0	14.9	0.06
Nick Anderson	38	38	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	2	1	17.3	14.3	3.01	15.6	14.5	1.08
Rony Seikaly	64	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	-2	9	15.3	16.0	-0.75	15.6	13.2	2.42
Horace Grant	76	76	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	6	-7	15.5	15.8	-0.32	14.0	18.7	-4.72
Brian Shaw	47	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	6	-7	15.7	15.3	0.36	14.7	15.3	-0.63
Darrell Armstrong	47	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	-1	7	15.3	15.7	-0.36	15.3	14.7	0.63
Gerald Wilkins	37	38	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	-1	7	15.7	15.4	0.25	16.0	14.3	1.74
Dan Schayes	15	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	7	-9	16.7	15.3	1.36	16.5	14.7	1.87
Dennis Scott	32	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	11	-17	14.4	16.1	-1.74	14.8	15.0	-0.21

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brett Szabo	18	19	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.02	9	-14	23	12.4	15.6	-3.17	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Alton Lister	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-5	5	16.9	14.8	2.13	15.6	15.5	0.04
Steve Hamer	11	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-2	-1	18.1	14.5	3.54	13.8	15.7	-1.93
Eric Williams	59	56	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-4	3	14.9	15.1	-0.16	15.6	15.4	0.21
Rick Fox	69	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-9	13	14.5	16.2	-1.75	15.8	14.9	0.87
Antoine Walker	81	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-6	7	14.3	18.5	-4.15	15.6	15.2	0.34
Marty Conlon	57	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	3	-11	16.3	12.9	3.44	16.4	14.2	2.21
David Wesley	77	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	14.2	18.1	-3.82	15.2	16.9	-1.72
Todd Day	45	46	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.16	-16	11	-27	15.7	14.3	1.47	14.5	16.5	-2.00
Dee Brown	49	50	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.45	-8	3	-11	15.4	14.5	0.97	16.2	14.7	1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.35,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 102, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.31,0.43,0.27,0	91.9%
WAS 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.43,0.28,0	91.7%
NYK 87, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.15,0	91.6%