NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	3.3 [1097]		MVP	Matt Bullard (HOU): +10.4%
San Antonio Spurs	79		Comeback	1.4 [975]		LVP	Carl Herrera (SAS): -12.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.02	10	64%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Mack	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	0.01	0.08	8	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	13	66%	0.07	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Mario Elie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.01	0.03	5	83%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	-0.01
Randy Livingston	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	11	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sedale Threatt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	5	43%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	13	68%	0.11	4	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	13	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Joe Courtney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	3	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	10	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	-0.06	8	25%	-0.01	6	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	22.5	17.3	24.3	2.6	25.0	117.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +38.6%

HOU +6.6%

SAS -6.2%

HOU +9.9%

HOU +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	18.2	15.6	118.4	91.9	104.4
season	15.5	16.8		107.2	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	14.9	14.0	16.3	15.1
SAS	15.5	19.4	19.3	18.9	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	50	51	0.61	-0.11	0.71	-0.21	28	-4	32	14.3	16.1	-1.80	19.1	17.0	2.09
Mario Elie	45	44	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.05	20	4	16	14.3	16.0	-1.73	18.1	18.3	-0.20
Matt Maloney	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	12	0	14.5	15.8	-1.32	17.6	18.9	-1.37
Eddie Johnson	30	31	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.08	12	12	0	16.0	14.6	1.32	19.3	17.6	1.69
Matt Bullard	57	55	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	12	0	14.6	16.0	-1.32	17.6	19.3	-1.69
Kevin Willis	61	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	17	-10	15.3	14.7	0.64	17.7	19.3	-1.63
Othella Harrington	51	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.09	9	15	-6	15.7	14.2	1.50	18.2	18.2	-0.02
Randy Livingston	42	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.18	12	12	0	15.8	14.5	1.32	18.9	17.6	1.37
Sedale Threatt	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	20	-16	14.7	15.2	-0.51	17.0	18.4	-1.39
Sam Mack	42	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.15	4	20	-16	16.0	14.3	1.73	18.3	18.1	0.20

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Courtney	7	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-21	18	15.3	18.5	-3.18	14.6	15.2	-0.53
Jamie Feick	33	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-23	22	18.5	18.0	0.50	14.9	15.2	-0.32
Cory Alexander	37	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.22	-10	-14	4	18.4	18.1	0.25	15.5	14.8	0.72
Monty Williams	67	66	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.17	-11	-13	2	17.7	20.1	-2.43	15.7	13.2	2.52
Will Perdue	34	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-20	16	19.6	17.3	2.38	16.2	14.4	1.84
Dominique Wilkins	43	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	-11	-2	19.6	16.8	2.74	15.2	15.0	0.16
Greg Anderson	43	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-11	-2	17.1	19.3	-2.28	14.5	15.7	-1.17
Avery Johnson	49	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-10	-4	18.1	18.4	-0.25	14.8	15.5	-0.72
Carl Herrera	53	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.29	-25	1	-26	17.6	19.2	-1.68	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Vinny Del Negro	64	65	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.21	-26	2	-28	18.5	17.2	1.32	14.8	16.0	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, CHI 75	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
LAL 119, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
PHI 105, NYK 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%