NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	8.7 [149]		MVP	Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (SAC): +33.8%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	6.6 [186]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): -42.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.15	0.20	0.01	15	75%	0.35	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Michael Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	75%	0.15	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Gamble	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	8	55%	-0.04	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.06
Brian Grant	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	6	59%	0.01	4	-0.22	5	80%	0.01
Billy Owens	-0.34	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17,-0.34	-0.06	-0.27	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	3	-0.33	2	100%	0.02
Mitch Richmond	-0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.42	-0.12	-0.31	-0.01	17	51%	-0.19	6	-0.22	9	89%	0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Felton Spencer	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.00	6	71%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	7	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	65%	0.09	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.09	7	86%	0.05
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.12	8	-0.23	6	100%	0.09
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	13	41%	-0.10	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.22,-0.3,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.42	-0.42	-0.14	-0.28	0.01	17	50%	-0.05	7	-0.37	6	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	0.7	30.0	13.8	32.3	2.3	37.5	138.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -30.2%

GSW +55.5%

GSW +11.3%

GSW +15.2%

SAC -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	14.0	15.6	104.3	106.2	104.4
season	15.4	15.0		102.4	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.1	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.9	15.3	18.3	16.7	16.3
GSW	15.8	14.1	13.5	12.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	66	66	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.30	16	-20	36	16.7	15.5	1.15	14.0	14.0	0.05
Jeff Grayer	1	2	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.11	0	-4	4	10.0	16.4	-6.38	1.5	14.3	-12.80
Corliss Williamson	14	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	4	-12	17.3	16.1	1.15	14.4	14.0	0.38
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	65	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.46	8	-12	20	16.1	16.7	-0.60	14.4	13.3	1.11
Brian Grant	31	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	10	-24	16.6	16.2	0.41	15.1	13.5	1.53
Billy Owens	73	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-1	-2	17.0	13.9	3.10	13.5	15.7	-2.13
Tyus Edney	28	28	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	8	-20	17.0	16.0	0.93	14.1	14.0	0.11
Kevin Gamble	29	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	1	-6	14.1	17.3	-3.24	14.4	13.9	0.52
Mitch Richmond	87	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-3	2	16.3	16.4	-0.13	14.0	14.3	-0.27
Olden Polynice	76	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-3	2	15.9	17.9	-2.02	13.9	14.6	-0.68

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	37	38	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-2	8	14.2	13.9	0.34	18.2	15.0	3.24
Mark Price	49	46	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-1	6	14.1	14.0	0.06	15.9	16.7	-0.82
Latrell Sprewell	89	87	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	3	-2	14.0	14.3	-0.27	16.3	16.4	-0.13
Scott Burrell	41	38	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	-2	8	14.4	13.8	0.58	15.2	17.1	-1.84
Chris Mullin	65	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	2	0	13.2	15.8	-2.57	16.6	15.6	1.04
Joe Smith	82	81	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	7	-10	14.0	14.1	-0.13	16.2	17.2	-1.07
Andrew DeClercq	30	28	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	1	2	15.6	13.3	2.23	14.9	16.9	-2.07
Bimbo Coles	48	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	5	-6	13.8	14.3	-0.52	16.7	15.9	0.82
Todd Fuller	39	39	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.23	1	3	-2	14.1	14.0	0.03	16.3	16.3	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.44,0.41,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.39,0.17,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	90.0%
IND 90, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.31,0.42,1	89.6%
NYK 87, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.4,0.25,0.45,0.44,0.42,1	89.4%