NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	99		Excitement	7.1 [385]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +42.7%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	46.0 [10]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -25.3%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.4,0.4,0.43	0.13	0.30	0.01	14	73%	0.45	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Gheorghe Muresan	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.02	3	86%	0.03	1	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ashraf Amaya	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	18	39%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	5	17%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	-0.00	12	47%	-0.09	5	-0.12	16	69%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	0.01	17	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.01
Ed Pinckney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	-0.00	13	61%	0.01	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.14	-0.01	14	53%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.19,-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.17	-0.04	22	36%	-0.17	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	24.6	15.6	23.8	2.0	39.2	133.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +61.4%

MIA -3.6%

WAS +13.4%

MIA -11.9%

MIA -9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.2	15.6	103.1	100.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.8		104.3	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.8		98.3	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.8	16.5	16.6	11.9	14.9
MIA	14.0	17.0	12.7	17.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	25	26	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.41	15	-11	26	11.4	16.2	-4.71	17.0	14.6	2.49
Juwan Howard	80	80	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-7	18	14.3	18.1	-3.84	15.0	16.4	-1.39
Calbert Cheaney	58	59	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.43	8	-4	12	14.3	15.8	-1.47	14.7	16.2	-1.51
Tracy Murray	53	53	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.34	10	-6	16	14.5	15.4	-0.89	16.5	13.7	2.81
Rod Strickland	78	75	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.51	0	4	-4	14.6	16.4	-1.80	14.0	19.8	-5.79
Jaren Jackson	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	3	-2	16.4	14.3	2.02	16.1	14.9	1.19
Chris Whitney	29	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	2	0	15.2	14.8	0.40	17.9	14.0	3.85
Gheorghe Muresan	40	39	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.08	-4	8	-12	16.6	13.7	2.95	15.3	15.2	0.04
Ashraf Amaya	31	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	13	-22	15.5	14.6	0.87	13.6	16.0	-2.34
Harvey Grant	58	55	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.00	-14	18	-32	16.4	12.7	3.67	14.8	15.9	-1.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Pinckney	10	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-2	0	18.2	14.9	3.32	13.0	15.1	-2.13
John Crotty	32	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	0	-4	16.9	14.4	2.57	14.7	15.0	-0.27
Keith Askins	35	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.11	-10	6	-16	17.6	13.9	3.70	15.0	14.9	0.16
Ike Austin	74	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-6	8	15.3	15.0	0.36	15.7	12.2	3.44
Tim Hardaway	80	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-7	10	14.6	18.7	-4.08	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Jamal Mashburn	82	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.55	2	-6	8	14.2	21.8	-7.66	14.5	17.9	-3.47
P.J. Brown	84	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	0	-4	14.9	18.1	-3.23	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Voshon Lenard	78	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	3	-10	15.2	15.4	-0.22	15.0	14.5	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.75,0.78,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 113, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.86,0.9,0.63,0.45,0.42,0	92.2%
DAL 88, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.69,0.64,0.32,0.28,0	91.6%
SAC 91, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.45,0.42,0	91.3%