NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	73		Excitement	3.8 [1025]		MVP	Dennis Scott (ORL): +4.8%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.2 [1219]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -11.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	78%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.12	-0.00	-0.10	8	37%	0.04	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	17	49%	-0.01	5	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	0.02	14	45%	-0.03	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.02	0.04	9	72%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	14	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
David Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	41%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	62%	0.04	4	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	10	41%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	23.3	15.6	24.8	2.0	25.3	116.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.7%

SAS -4.7%

ORL +7.3%

ORL +16.9%

ORL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	18.5	14.8	15.6	84.9	108.0	104.4
season	16.8	16.4		100.8	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.5	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	20.6	17.7	19.3	18.5
ORL	13.5	13.7	17.4	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anderson	31	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-18	15	17.7	18.9	-1.27	16.0	14.1	1.90
Carl Herrera	40	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-13	5	16.9	19.9	-3.02	14.4	15.2	-0.85
Cory Alexander	37	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-16	11	17.4	19.3	-1.95	16.3	13.8	2.47
Avery Johnson	49	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.17	-16	-5	-11	19.3	17.4	1.95	13.8	16.3	-2.47
Dominique Wilkins	59	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.17	-16	-5	-11	18.8	17.9	0.93	14.3	16.0	-1.70
Monty Williams	37	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-10	-1	20.3	17.1	3.17	15.7	14.3	1.39
Jamie Feick	46	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.06	-13	-8	-5	19.9	16.9	3.02	15.2	14.4	0.85
Will Perdue	55	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	-3	-15	18.9	17.7	1.27	14.1	16.0	-1.90
Vinny Del Negro	76	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	-6	-9	17.4	26.9	-9.52	14.9	14.5	0.36

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Anderson	54	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	5	11	15.6	13.6	1.92	18.8	18.0	0.81
Derek Strong	60	59	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	8	5	15.8	12.7	3.08	18.2	19.2	-1.02
Dennis Scott	62	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.20	18	3	15	13.9	17.2	-3.39	18.6	18.2	0.42
Rony Seikaly	60	59	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.12	15	6	9	14.4	15.7	-1.32	19.4	16.5	2.87
Gerald Wilkins	50	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	7	7	14.8	14.9	-0.06	19.5	16.9	2.61
Brian Shaw	38	40	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.19	16	5	11	15.5	14.3	1.24	19.7	17.4	2.31
Anfernee Hardaway	66	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	10	1	14.2	17.0	-2.80	18.3	19.1	-0.82
Dan Schayes	17	17	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	13	-5	15.8	14.6	1.24	18.9	18.4	0.49
Darrell Armstrong	15	15	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	23	-25	14.1	15.0	-0.92	14.4	19.4	-4.95
David Vaughn	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	15.0	14.8	0.19	11.9	19.2	-7.29
Brian Evans	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	15.0	14.8	0.19	11.7	19.0	-7.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 103, IND 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.2%
TOR 75, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
NOK 73, MEM 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%