NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	10.3 [56]		MVP	Todd Day (BOS): +36.9%
Boston Celtics	100		Comeback	39.2 [31]		LVP	David Wesley (BOS): -33.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.32	-0.01	0.37	0.03	15	60%	0.43	4	-0.11	5	80%	-0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	86%	0.16	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Michael Curry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Dumars	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	57%	-0.03	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.06
Otis Thorpe	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.01	9	78%	0.12	3	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	28%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.17,-0.32,-0.32,-0.28,-0.28,-0.16,-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	21	55%	0.06	6	-0.20	11	64%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.14	0.23	-0.00	17	72%	0.40	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	-0.00	0.24	0.04	16	53%	0.29	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Steve Hamer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alton Lister	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brett Szabo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	7	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	19	44%	-0.12	4	-0.11	7	57%	-0.04
Eric Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.08	-0.22	0.02	16	42%	-0.27	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.10
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.07	-0.24	0.03	15	40%	-0.23	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.0	1.6	22.1	15.4	24.4	1.7	28.8	1.7	17.3	136.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +54.0%

DET +27.9%

BOS -6.8%

BOS -24.7%

BOS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	16.6	14.4	15.6	103.9	97.1	104.4
season	17.1	14.8		107.6	101.8
opponent	14.7	16.2		109.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	16.3	18.0	15.7	19.2	11.9	16.6
BOS	14.3	14.0	16.3	15.0	11.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	71	72	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.17	23	-17	40	16.2	17.5	-1.24	15.5	11.9	3.59
Lindsey Hunter	85	86	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-8	22	16.8	15.7	1.06	14.7	13.0	1.73
Grant Hill	89	88	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-1	8	16.5	17.5	-1.00	14.8	12.5	2.32
Joe Dumars	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	-1	8	16.8	15.9	0.87	14.8	13.3	1.51
Terry Mills	39	39	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	5	-4	18.5	15.4	3.07	14.2	14.6	-0.35
Otis Thorpe	59	61	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	-2	10	17.6	15.2	2.42	15.5	12.9	2.60
Michael Curry	26	28	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	11	-16	13.8	17.5	-3.73	11.7	15.5	-3.70
Litterial Green	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	13	-20	13.6	16.9	-3.33	9.9	14.9	-4.99
Grant Long	15	15	-0.15	0.66	-0.81	0.11	-9	15	-24	18.2	16.3	1.89	13.5	14.6	-1.15
Aaron McKie	37	38	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.00	-9	15	-24	15.2	17.4	-2.15	12.2	15.8	-3.54

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Day	74	74	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.15	6	-12	18	13.7	16.2	-2.50	17.1	15.3	1.80
Alton Lister	8	7	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	-5	4	15.1	14.4	0.74	17.7	16.5	1.21
David Wesley	102	102	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	-2	-2	14.6	0.0	14.59	16.6	0.0	16.59
Marty Conlon	46	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-8	10	13.7	15.1	-1.36	15.5	17.6	-2.13
Antoine Walker	90	91	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-7	8	14.7	12.4	2.36	17.0	13.5	3.41
Rick Fox	92	88	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-2	-2	14.2	16.8	-2.66	16.7	15.9	0.76
Steve Hamer	4	3	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-6	6	3.2	14.9	-11.65	3.3	17.0	-13.66
Brett Szabo	23	22	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.44	-9	3	-12	16.5	13.9	2.62	15.6	16.9	-1.27
Eric Williams	76	75	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.29	-21	15	-36	15.3	12.1	3.22	17.0	15.5	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.43,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, NOH 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.66,0.53,0.29,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.06,0.05,0	90.6%
POR 110, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.38,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0,0	90.4%
DAL 116, DEN 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.47,0.54,0.66,0.27,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.42,0	90.0%