NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	3.6 [1055]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +12.9%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.2 [788]		LVP	Terry Mills (DET): -17.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	74%	0.10	3	-0.02	3	33%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	3	130%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	-0.09	18	28%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	11	48%	-0.05	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03
Otis Thorpe	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Mills	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	0.01	7	19%	-0.11	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	16	78%	0.20	4	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	71%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	11	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	5	57%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	11	61%	0.06	4	-0.07	9	78%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	11	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	26.5	16.5	25.4	2.4	27.4	125.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +23.1%

ORL +14.4%

DET -0.9%

ORL +10.5%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.6	97.7	106.9	104.4
season	17.1	16.4		107.6	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.2		103.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.8	18.3	17.6	15.2	16.7
ORL	16.2	15.1	16.7	18.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	46	49	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.35	15	-24	39	15.8	17.8	-2.04	17.7	15.2	2.50
Grant Long	28	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	16.8	16.7	0.08	17.1	16.3	0.85
Joe Dumars	52	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-5	1	16.5	17.0	-0.49	17.2	15.7	1.52
Aaron McKie	52	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-8	7	16.5	17.1	-0.54	16.8	16.3	0.49
Grant Hill	70	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-5	1	16.6	17.5	-0.94	16.7	16.1	0.61
Otis Thorpe	57	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	16.7	16.9	-0.20	16.3	17.1	-0.85
Michael Curry	24	25	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	6	-21	18.6	16.0	2.62	14.8	17.3	-2.42
Lindsey Hunter	67	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	16.7	16.9	-0.28	16.5	16.8	-0.37
Terry Mills	34	33	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.10	-21	12	-33	17.9	16.0	1.85	14.9	17.6	-2.66

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	70	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	16.3	17.6	-1.35	16.8	16.6	0.15
Horace Grant	57	57	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-3	15	15.8	18.0	-2.19	16.8	16.5	0.32
Nick Anderson	65	64	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	3	3	16.4	17.1	-0.71	16.5	17.3	-0.73
Dennis Scott	62	64	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	-1	11	16.5	16.8	-0.28	17.0	15.9	1.11
Rony Seikaly	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	1	7	16.3	17.3	-0.96	17.0	15.8	1.21
Derek Strong	46	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	10	-11	17.5	15.5	1.99	16.3	17.2	-0.86
Gerald Wilkins	34	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	7	-5	16.7	16.5	0.19	16.9	16.6	0.33
Brian Shaw	34	35	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	11	-13	17.9	15.7	2.21	16.1	17.1	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.78,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
UTA 77, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
ORL 86, DET 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%