NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	96		Excitement	6.7 [454]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +14.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Comeback	3.3 [334]		LVP	Cedric Ceballos (PHX): -15.0%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.03	10	68%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Bryant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	16	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Loren Meyer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Boney	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	13	57%	0.08	5	-0.17	9	78%	0.03
Danny Manning	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jason Kidd	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.08	6	-0.19	4	75%	-0.01
Cedric Ceballos	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	15	40%	-0.15	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.07

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	13	70%	0.18	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.01	14	68%	0.18	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	69%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.04
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	1.8	25.4	15.8	27.2	1.6	33.2	126.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +46.8%

PHX -5.7%

MIN +3.1%

MIN +3.4%

MIN +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIN	NBA	PHX	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	13.6	15.6	97.0	107.0	104.4
season	14.6	15.5		106.8	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	19.1	14.8	14.1	14.2	15.4
MIN	14.5	15.2	13.0	12.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Meyer	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-11	11	11.0	15.4	-4.41	8.0	13.7	-5.70
Danny Manning	61	61	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	13.3	18.7	-5.35	13.9	13.1	0.80
Dexter Boney	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-10	9	8.0	15.5	-7.52	4.5	13.8	-9.28
Jason Kidd	62	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-11	11	13.1	19.1	-6.02	13.2	14.3	-1.12
Mark Bryant	82	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-4	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.63	13.8	12.8	0.99
Cedric Ceballos	58	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	17.6	12.1	5.49	14.0	13.0	0.94
Hot Rod Williams	65	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	1	-13	17.0	12.3	4.68	14.2	12.3	1.92
Kevin Johnson	90	89	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.07	-15	4	-19	15.3	15.9	-0.58	13.2	17.0	-3.83
Wesley Person	74	76	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.26	-15	4	-19	16.2	12.9	3.27	13.5	13.8	-0.32

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Garrett	78	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-3	17	13.5	13.8	-0.29	15.7	14.0	1.69
Tom Gugliotta	85	85	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.15	12	-1	13	13.5	13.9	-0.40	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Kevin Garnett	80	79	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.01	13	-2	15	13.0	16.0	-3.07	15.0	16.7	-1.67
Chris Carr	32	32	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	6	-1	13.8	13.5	0.33	15.4	15.3	0.11
Stephon Marbury	60	60	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	1	9	13.5	13.7	-0.22	16.0	14.4	1.62
Sam Mitchell	43	42	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	8	-5	14.6	12.8	1.82	15.2	15.5	-0.34
Terry Porter	40	39	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	10	-9	13.7	13.5	0.22	14.4	16.0	-1.62
Doug West	64	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	5	1	13.3	14.1	-0.77	15.4	15.4	0.02
James Robinson	13	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	15	-19	13.4	13.6	-0.24	15.8	15.3	0.49
Cherokee Parks	5	5	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	16	-21	19.2	13.3	5.91	15.2	15.4	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.76,0.81,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.75,0.93,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 91, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%
LAC 109, HOU 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
CLE 92, PHX 103	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.4%