NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	4.3 [913]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +11.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	97		Comeback	1.1 [753]		LVP	Allen Iverson (PHI): -16.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.00	0.05	23	69%	0.16	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Ricky Pierce	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	10	65%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	16	55%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	11	38%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	17	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Adrian Caldwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Cage	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	6	42%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mark Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	8	67%	-0.02	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	15	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	24	34%	-0.14	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.4	24.4	16.3	22.6	2.3	26.7	119.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +45.9%

DEN +1.1%

DEN +5.7%

PHI -3.8%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	14.5	14.2	15.6	110.9	97.0	104.4
season	15.2	14.7		102.3	101.4
opponent	14.7	15.3		108.4	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.2	14.4	15.8	15.5	14.5
PHI	15.0	15.0	16.2	11.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	80	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.08	24	-9	33	14.7	13.6	1.12	14.3	13.8	0.50
Ervin Johnson	92	91	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.01	18	-3	21	14.6	13.1	1.48	14.3	12.9	1.44
Bryant Stith	58	58	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	-5	25	14.8	14.0	0.71	15.6	12.3	3.34
Mark Jackson	89	87	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.03	16	-1	17	14.7	12.5	2.22	14.0	15.7	-1.72
Antonio McDyess	67	65	0.48	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	-3	21	14.1	15.2	-1.13	15.6	11.7	3.91
Brooks Thompson	15	16	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	19	-23	12.5	14.8	-2.26	14.2	14.2	-0.01
Ricky Pierce	43	42	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	20	-25	14.0	14.8	-0.71	12.3	15.6	-3.34
Tom Hammonds	9	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	18	-21	13.1	14.6	-1.48	12.9	14.3	-1.44
Dale Ellis	52	52	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.16	-9	24	-33	14.7	14.2	0.49	12.7	15.8	-3.10

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Davis	56	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-18	21	13.2	15.4	-2.16	14.6	14.2	0.36
Adrian Caldwell	11	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-10	5	15.0	14.1	0.90	15.0	14.4	0.60
Doug Overton	27	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-12	9	15.1	13.9	1.20	14.7	14.4	0.32
Lucious Harris	56	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-16	17	12.9	15.9	-2.97	14.6	14.2	0.44
Michael Cage	10	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	-7	-1	17.8	13.8	4.00	12.0	14.7	-2.70
Scott Williams	33	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-19	23	13.7	14.5	-0.80	17.0	13.2	3.82
Derrick Coleman	51	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-10	5	14.3	14.1	0.11	14.4	14.5	-0.05
Don MacLean	85	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-9	3	13.6	17.7	-4.16	14.5	14.0	0.53
Rex Walters	49	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	4	-23	15.0	13.4	1.61	13.3	15.6	-2.25
Allen Iverson	73	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	-3	-9	13.9	15.1	-1.20	14.4	14.7	-0.32
Clar. Weatherspoon	49	48	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.17	-25	10	-35	16.4	12.1	4.37	13.7	15.2	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 110, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0	95.3%
ORL 97, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
DAL 106, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.2%