NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	106		Excitement	9.8 [75]		MVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): +20.6%
Vancouver Grizzlies	109		Comeback	2.5 [393]		LVP	Greg Anthony (VAN): -24.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alton Lister	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Hawkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	67%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.02	22	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Brett Szabo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.06
Marty Conlon	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.02	7	59%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Todd Day	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,-0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.17,-0.2	-0.04	-0.17	-0.01	29	48%	0.07	4	-0.27	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	15	34%	-0.13	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.08	0.02	18	71%	0.24	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Pete Chilcutt	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	19	62%	0.10	3	-0.11	12	58%	-0.07
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.06
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	1	75%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	7	30%	-0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Lawrence Moten	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	11	54%	-0.06	4	-0.12	13	54%	-0.15
Greg Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.3,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	0.00	9	47%	0.10	7	-0.34	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	2.5	25.4	19.4	32.2	2.4	43.4	145.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +58.8%

VAN +4.9%

BOS -14.9%

BOS -8.1%

VAN +9.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	VAN	NBA	BOS	VAN	NBA
this game	13.9	14.5	15.6	103.9	107.9	104.4
season	14.8	16.3		101.8	97.9
opponent	15.5	14.7		109.2	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.2	16.2	11.0	14.3	13.9
VAN	15.5	16.5	12.3	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Hawkins	60	59	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.09	9	-12	21	11.9	16.6	-4.69	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Alton Lister	38	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-3	3	13.9	13.8	0.13	14.8	14.4	0.39
Brett Szabo	11	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	3	-9	16.5	13.5	3.01	15.6	14.3	1.23
Antoine Walker	98	96	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-5	7	13.7	19.0	-5.35	14.5	14.8	-0.30
David Wesley	92	92	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	2	-7	14.0	12.9	1.07	14.1	18.8	-4.68
Todd Day	84	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.39	-4	1	-5	14.4	11.4	2.94	14.9	12.9	1.93
Marty Conlon	56	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	3	-9	15.7	11.6	4.11	15.9	12.8	3.13
Rick Fox	61	61	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.47	-8	5	-13	14.2	13.4	0.83	13.8	15.6	-1.76

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Reeves	90	91	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.43	9	-6	15	14.3	16.0	-1.67	14.0	13.1	0.87
Lawrence Moten	81	82	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-3	9	14.5	14.5	0.02	13.9	13.9	-0.05
Greg Anthony	79	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	0	3	14.0	16.2	-2.19	13.3	16.0	-2.78
Blue Edwards	51	51	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	-2	7	15.8	13.2	2.56	15.7	12.0	3.73
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	87	89	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	6	-9	13.8	18.8	-4.96	13.3	17.9	-4.65
Roy Rogers	51	52	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	0	3	14.5	14.5	-0.05	14.0	13.7	0.32
Lee Mayberry	42	42	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	6	-9	15.4	13.9	1.52	15.0	13.0	1.97
Pete Chilcutt	24	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	8	-13	15.0	14.4	0.69	11.3	14.6	-3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.53,0.69,0.59,0.33,0.47,0.37,0.47,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.65,0.74,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.71,0.54,0.69,0.46,0.68,0.74,1	91.5%
LAL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.73,1	91.2%
DET 95, CHA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.62,0.75,0.66,0.84,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.34,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.58,1	91.2%