NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	107		Excitement	7.2 [378]		MVP	Bimbo Coles (GSW): +15.9%
Dallas Mavericks	99		Comeback	2.3 [380]		LVP	Felton Spencer (GSW): -11.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bimbo Coles	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	9	65%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Latrell Sprewell	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	18	57%	0.13	2	-0.04	13	69%	0.02
Mark Price	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	72%	0.16	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	78%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	19	53%	0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	5	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.02	8	75%	0.17	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.01	12	62%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	16	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	13	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	10	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	14	53%	-0.01	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.03
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	20.6	15.6	26.2	1.5	31.8	124.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +31.2%

GSW +13.2%

GSW +13.4%

DAL -5.7%

DAL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	16.4	15.6	116.3	106.5	104.4
season	15.0	15.9		104.4	99.1
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.5	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.8	15.2	13.8	14.3	14.8
DAL	13.6	19.1	16.2	16.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Price	41	42	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-3	14	15.0	14.5	0.45	16.3	16.5	-0.17
Joe Smith	81	83	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	14.8	14.5	0.34	16.5	15.5	0.98
Latrell Sprewell	82	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	2	4	14.7	15.1	-0.39	16.4	16.3	0.09
Felton Spencer	27	29	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-2	12	13.0	15.5	-2.53	17.0	16.1	0.91
Bimbo Coles	50	50	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	-1	10	15.2	14.2	1.03	17.0	15.6	1.44
Donald Royal	43	41	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	0	8	15.4	14.2	1.17	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Chris Mullin	73	75	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	5	-2	14.6	15.4	-0.78	16.5	15.8	0.67
Todd Fuller	11	10	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.03	-1	9	-10	14.5	14.8	-0.34	15.5	16.5	-0.98
B.J. Armstrong	38	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	8	-8	13.8	15.4	-1.64	16.9	16.0	0.99
Andrew DeClercq	14	13	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.07	-15	23	-38	17.6	14.2	3.33	12.6	17.0	-4.37

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim Jackson	50	51	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-11	14	16.5	16.2	0.27	14.6	14.9	-0.32
Eric Montross	10	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	15.5	16.5	-0.98	14.7	14.8	-0.10
Sam Cassell	70	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.22	4	-12	16	15.5	18.9	-3.37	15.1	13.7	1.47
Jamal Mashburn	42	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-6	4	17.0	15.9	1.05	13.3	15.9	-2.61
Chris Gatling	70	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-4	0	16.3	16.6	-0.25	14.6	15.1	-0.51
A.C. Green	76	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.44	3	-11	14	15.7	19.2	-3.50	15.4	12.3	3.07
Derek Harper	38	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	7	-22	17.7	15.5	2.17	14.2	15.1	-0.85
George McCloud	55	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	2	-12	16.0	16.9	-0.92	15.5	13.7	1.82
Michael Finley	54	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.12	-18	10	-28	17.5	14.8	2.72	14.5	15.2	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.19,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.15,0.05,0.09,0.05,0	93.5%
PHI 112, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.14,0.05,0.01,0.09,0	93.0%
DAL 103, CLE 95	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.5,0.51,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.62,0.42,0.21,0.29,0.46,0.2,0.03,0.03,0.04,0	92.9%