NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	85		Excitement	5.9 [592]		MVP	Jeff Grayer (SAC): +22.5%
San Antonio Spurs	79		Comeback	6.4 [174]		LVP	Tyus Edney (SAC): -16.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Grayer	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.08	-0.03	9	84%	0.25	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	19	55%	0.07	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.06
Olden Polynice	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	16	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Gamble	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	64%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.03
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tyus Edney	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	6	39%	-0.08	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	14	47%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	6	69%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	11	39%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	12	36%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	14	41%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.4	16.4	25.4	1.7	34.2	129.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.2%

SAC +12.6%

SAC +15.4%

SAS -14.4%

SAC +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	18.0	15.6	97.7	95.2	104.4
season	15.4	16.8		102.4	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.8	15.0	14.2	18.1	15.9
SAS	18.4	16.4	19.4	17.9	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Edney	47	44	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.36	13	-7	20	15.3	16.7	-1.42	18.4	17.6	0.77
Mitch Richmond	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-5	16	16.1	15.0	1.08	18.2	16.0	2.24
Jeff Grayer	55	52	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	0	6	15.3	17.0	-1.74	17.9	18.2	-0.31
Kevin Gamble	35	33	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-1	8	16.5	15.6	0.93	18.1	18.0	0.10
Olden Polynice	69	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	-2	10	15.8	16.6	-0.79	17.8	18.7	-0.85
Corliss Williamson	39	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	5	-4	16.2	15.7	0.40	18.8	17.4	1.38
Michael Smith	75	71	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.20	-9	15	-24	16.0	15.3	0.69	17.6	20.6	-3.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	40	39	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.04	-7	13	-20	16.7	15.3	1.42	17.6	18.4	-0.77

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	17	17	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.03	9	-15	24	17.4	18.2	-0.81	14.9	16.2	-1.30
Vernon Maxwell	44	48	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.20	13	-19	32	16.6	19.6	-2.95	17.1	14.5	2.52
Carl Herrera	63	67	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.24	13	-19	32	17.1	20.7	-3.56	16.8	13.1	3.68
Monty Williams	27	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-4	2	17.7	18.2	-0.49	14.3	16.8	-2.48
Sean Elliott	56	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-2	-2	18.2	17.7	0.49	16.8	14.3	2.48
Greg Anderson	64	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	1	-8	18.1	17.7	0.41	15.8	16.3	-0.53
Vinny Del Negro	41	42	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.17	-15	9	-24	18.8	17.2	1.59	14.8	17.0	-2.21
Avery Johnson	66	70	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.29	-15	9	-24	18.2	17.4	0.81	16.2	14.9	1.30
Dominique Wilkins	39	41	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.33	-18	12	-30	19.2	16.9	2.32	14.8	17.0	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.44,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 97, LAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.26,0	91.8%
CHH 93, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.35,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.01,0	91.4%
PHI 96, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.1%