NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	112		Excitement	7.9 [255]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (WAS): +19.3%
Boston Celtics	106		Comeback	3.2 [215]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -13.0%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.19	0.05	0.16	0.01	10	70%	0.25	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gheorghe Muresan	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	69%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	19	56%	0.12	4	-0.10	7	43%	-0.20
Chris Whitney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	16	52%	0.05	7	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	14	51%	0.04	3	-0.17	9	100%	0.06

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.20	0.01	16	50%	0.19	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.00	18	58%	0.17	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.06	0.02	15	66%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Brett Szabo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alton Lister	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	14	47%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	11	39%	-0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Todd Day	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	9	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	24.0	15.8	22.6	2.4	36.5	128.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +42.7%

WAS +9.0%

WAS +26.9%

BOS -29.4%

WAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	BOS	NBA	WAS	BOS	NBA
this game	13.5	13.2	15.6	104.7	97.2	104.4
season	14.8	14.8		104.3	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.8		109.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.1	11.4	15.4	13.0	13.5
BOS	11.2	13.8	11.7	16.3	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	6	-6	13.2	14.1	-0.99	12.6	14.3	-1.70
Chris Whitney	31	31	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.05	16	-10	26	12.2	14.0	-1.81	17.5	11.5	6.04
Harvey Grant	65	64	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	1	4	14.2	12.3	1.96	12.0	14.8	-2.78
Chris Webber	96	98	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	4	-2	13.8	10.5	3.37	12.3	21.5	-9.19
Juwan Howard	95	97	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	10	-14	13.5	12.9	0.63	12.7	17.1	-4.37
Tracy Murray	40	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	-5	16	13.3	13.6	-0.28	15.5	11.8	3.72
Rod Strickland	78	80	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.40	-9	15	-24	14.0	12.1	1.88	11.9	16.8	-4.86
Jaren Jackson	27	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.11	8	-2	10	13.4	13.5	-0.09	15.0	12.6	2.48
Gheorghe Muresan	31	33	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	5	-4	11.6	14.2	-2.62	15.5	12.2	3.24

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brett Szabo	11	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-7	8	19.6	12.5	7.17	11.2	13.7	-2.56
Todd Day	73	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-12	18	13.2	13.3	-0.13	13.3	13.9	-0.65
Rick Fox	80	79	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-10	14	11.5	17.9	-6.36	14.3	11.0	3.31
Alton Lister	7	7	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	2	-10	18.1	12.9	5.29	12.0	13.6	-1.58
Antoine Walker	78	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-9	12	12.5	14.9	-2.35	14.3	11.5	2.71
David Wesley	97	96	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-6	6	12.3	20.2	-7.93	13.7	11.6	2.05
Eric Williams	91	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-3	0	13.5	11.8	1.63	13.6	12.9	0.64
Marty Conlon	46	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	12	-30	14.9	11.9	3.01	12.2	14.4	-2.21
Dee Brown	62	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	9	-24	14.2	11.8	2.43	12.6	14.5	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.15,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 99, CHA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0	91.4%
MIL 91, DET 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.16,0	91.3%
DET 75, IND 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0	91.3%