NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	3.9 [1001]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +7.0%
Dallas Mavericks	66		Comeback	1.0 [632]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (DAL): -16.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	15	72%	0.15	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Gerald Wilkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	8	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	12	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02
Brian Shaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	87%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dan Schayes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	6	29%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Derek Strong	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	9	40%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Scott	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	10	25%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	-0.02	6	19%	-0.09	2	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.04	8	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	5	36%	-0.03	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
A.C. Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	5	60%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	14	43%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	12	39%	-0.06	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.6	25.0	16.8	26.4	2.6	26.4	127.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.8%

ORL +12.0%

ORL +7.5%

ORL +0.2%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.6	15.6	86.7	75.9	104.4
season	16.4	15.9		102.9	99.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.7	16.0	16.4	19.9	16.9
DAL	17.0	12.8	17.1	16.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	44	42	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	0	12	15.7	18.1	-2.38	16.2	15.0	1.15
Nick Anderson	70	68	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	1	10	17.0	16.5	0.48	14.9	18.2	-3.28
Anfernee Hardaway	68	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	1	10	17.2	16.2	0.98	15.3	16.7	-1.41
Dennis Scott	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	0	12	17.6	15.4	2.17	16.5	13.5	2.99
Horace Grant	74	71	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.09	8	4	4	16.9	16.9	-0.02	15.0	18.4	-3.40
Derek Strong	51	47	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	8	-4	15.8	18.4	-2.58	16.1	15.0	1.15
Dan Schayes	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	7	-2	18.2	15.5	2.76	16.1	14.9	1.22
Brian Shaw	34	32	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	15	-18	16.4	17.2	-0.82	15.1	15.9	-0.75

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	20	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-13	14	16.3	15.4	0.98	17.7	16.7	1.07
Oliver Miller	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-9	6	13.5	17.1	-3.58	17.1	16.8	0.22
Jamal Mashburn	47	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-8	4	15.7	15.5	0.23	16.3	17.7	-1.35
George McCloud	34	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-7	2	14.8	16.1	-1.32	16.8	17.0	-0.16
Sam Cassell	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.02	-8	-4	-4	14.8	16.3	-1.45	17.0	16.9	0.05
Derek Harper	46	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-8	4	16.3	14.8	1.45	16.9	17.0	-0.05
Jim Jackson	53	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-5	-2	16.1	14.8	1.32	16.9	17.0	-0.12
A.C. Green	62	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	16.4	13.7	2.69	17.2	16.3	0.81
Michael Finley	52	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-3	-6	15.0	16.5	-1.53	17.5	16.1	1.40
Chris Gatling	43	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	-1	-10	16.5	14.7	1.85	16.2	17.6	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, CHH 86	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
SAS 107, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.4%
SAS 109, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%