NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	3.7 [1068]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +15.4%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	1.0 [610]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -8.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	9	100%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	19	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Charlie Ward	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	4	125%	0.04	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	15	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	6	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	14	47%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	7	68%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	3	20%	-0.04	3	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	9	54%	-0.03	2	-0.03	10	70%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	18	45%	-0.05	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.0	33.1	17.8	29.3	4.3	28.5	141.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.1%

BOS -8.4%

SAS +20.9%

BOS -2.6%

SAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	15.8	14.6	15.7	114.7	96.8	100.5
season	15.9	14.4		100.1	99.5
opponent	15.9	15.8		102.1	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	16.3	16.4	14.9	15.8
BOS	15.1	15.7	14.3	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	69	71	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.11	24	-7	31	16.0	15.0	0.99	15.0	13.3	1.64
Bruce Bowen	54	56	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	3	11	16.7	14.5	2.28	15.4	13.3	2.12
Hedo Turkoglu	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.24	22	-5	27	17.0	14.4	2.66	14.9	14.1	0.81
Tony Parker	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.02	12	5	7	17.4	13.7	3.66	15.4	13.5	1.81
Rasho Nesterovic	58	57	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	4	9	17.4	13.2	4.16	15.3	13.5	1.76
Manu Ginobili	38	39	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	11	-5	15.1	16.2	-1.09	14.2	14.8	-0.69
Charlie Ward	42	42	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	12	-7	13.7	17.4	-3.66	13.5	15.4	-1.81
Robert Horry	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.08	6	11	-5	14.8	16.3	-1.47	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Devin Brown	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	13.2	16.2	-3.04	11.7	15.1	-3.35
Kevin Willis	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	23	-29	12.5	16.3	-3.73	12.5	14.9	-2.36
Malik Rose	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	23	-29	12.5	16.3	-3.73	12.5	14.9	-2.36
Ron Mercer	35	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	19	-21	14.3	16.6	-2.24	13.7	15.0	-1.27

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	55	55	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-25	33	13.9	15.4	-1.45	15.9	15.5	0.40
Brandon Hunter	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-21	25	13.2	14.7	-1.52	11.1	16.3	-5.21
Ricky Davis	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-9	1	14.5	14.7	-0.25	16.9	14.1	2.90
Walter McCarty	53	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	-11	5	14.6	14.5	0.19	16.7	14.5	2.28
Vin Baker	26	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-10	3	15.2	14.3	0.93	15.8	15.7	0.07
Mark Blount	63	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.18	-16	-1	-15	14.8	14.2	0.61	16.0	15.2	0.79
Chris Mihm	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	-11	5	14.5	14.6	-0.16	14.9	16.2	-1.27
Jiri Welsch	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	-1	-15	14.4	14.8	-0.41	14.9	17.3	-2.41
Paul Pierce	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.01	-17	0	-17	14.7	14.2	0.52	16.3	14.6	1.70
Mike James	50	50	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.07	-21	4	-25	15.0	14.1	0.85	14.6	17.0	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 104, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.0%
MIA 101, CHH 86	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
SAS 78, POR 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%