NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	5.4 [718]		MVP	B.J. Armstrong (GSW): +11.2%
Vancouver Grizzlies	86		Comeback	2.1 [322]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -17.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
B.J. Armstrong	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	10	68%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Chris Mullin	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	12	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	21	57%	0.14	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Ray Owes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.04	7	79%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	54%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Felton Spencer	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	6	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lee Mayberry	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	4	30%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	15	47%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	19	38%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	16	49%	-0.06	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	23.3	15.3	23.3	2.5	24.5	113.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +48.4%

GSW +8.5%

GSW +14.0%

VAN -12.1%

VAN -8.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	VAN	NBA	GSW	VAN	NBA
this game	15.4	16.9	15.6	114.6	96.6	104.4
season	15.0	16.3		104.4	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.2	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	13.7	16.5	17.5	15.4
VAN	18.3	15.8	15.5	18.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Latrell Sprewell	73	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.01	20	-4	24	15.3	16.1	-0.77	17.2	15.6	1.54
Ray Owes	32	31	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.03	19	-3	22	12.9	16.8	-3.94	18.2	16.3	1.89
Chris Mullin	74	74	0.49	0.02	0.47	0.02	16	0	16	15.1	17.2	-2.13	16.5	19.1	-2.57
Bimbo Coles	49	47	0.40	0.11	0.29	-0.10	17	-1	18	15.3	15.6	-0.31	17.5	16.3	1.18
Joe Smith	71	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	7	2	16.3	12.2	4.09	17.2	15.7	1.52
Felton Spencer	61	59	0.08	0.43	-0.35	0.05	1	15	-14	15.9	14.5	1.35	15.9	18.9	-2.92
Todd Fuller	14	17	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.02	3	13	-10	15.1	15.5	-0.34	16.8	17.0	-0.13
B.J. Armstrong	43	44	0.04	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	20	-24	16.3	14.7	1.60	16.4	17.4	-1.04
Donyell Marshall	28	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	17	-18	15.7	15.3	0.42	17.4	16.7	0.64

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	47	45	0.03	-0.54	0.57	-0.08	4	-20	24	17.0	16.9	0.10	16.1	14.7	1.38
Greg Anthony	43	45	-0.18	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-8	0	16.3	17.5	-1.17	16.0	14.8	1.20
Bryant Reeves	70	70	-0.30	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	-5	-6	16.2	19.8	-3.63	15.5	15.2	0.34
Roy Rogers	32	33	-0.33	-0.18	-0.15	-0.01	-11	-5	-6	18.2	16.2	1.96	13.6	16.5	-2.89
Lee Mayberry	53	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	-10	4	17.5	16.0	1.52	15.8	14.8	1.01
Anthony Peeler	71	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.06	-17	1	-18	16.8	17.6	-0.85	14.8	17.4	-2.61
Blue Edwards	63	63	-0.48	-0.03	-0.45	0.05	-18	2	-20	16.9	17.0	-0.10	16.0	14.2	1.80
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	66	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	-3	-10	17.2	16.1	1.14	15.2	16.2	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
GSW 85, TOR 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.8%
GSW 119, SAC 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.36,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%