NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	8.4 [181]		MVP	Olden Polynice (SAC): +9.3%
Sacramento Kings	112		Comeback	1.2 [931]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -18.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Robinson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Carr	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	36%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Doug West	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Sam Mitchell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	8	45%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13	0.04	-0.12	0.04	12	60%	-0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.02	-0.02	6	44%	-0.01	7	-0.17	4	25%	-0.04
Tom Gugliotta	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.2,-0.18	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	27	50%	-0.04	3	-0.14	12	67%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.07
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	17	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	68%	0.15	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	15	100%	0.07
Kevin Salvadori	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	18	60%	0.09	4	-0.14	16	87%	0.07
Michael Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	4	27%	-0.13	1	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.5	25.3	15.6	34.2	2.4	41.5	150.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +24.2%

SAC +32.9%

SAC +12.5%

MIN -14.4%

MIN -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	15.9	15.6	116.7	123.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.4		103.3	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.7	18.4	13.9	16.0	16.0
SAC	15.6	15.2	17.4	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Robinson	15	15	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.06	-1	-6	5	17.5	15.7	1.88	14.9	16.0	-1.11
Terry Porter	27	28	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-9	11	19.1	14.6	4.54	16.4	15.6	0.77
Chris Carr	34	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-6	5	14.1	17.1	-2.92	14.7	16.6	-1.83
Sam Mitchell	52	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-9	11	16.4	15.4	0.99	14.6	17.3	-2.70
Cherokee Parks	19	18	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	1	-9	17.2	15.6	1.51	15.7	15.9	-0.24
Stojko Vrankovic	33	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-2	-3	13.6	17.3	-3.73	16.7	15.4	1.27
Tom Gugliotta	84	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-7	7	15.9	16.8	-0.93	15.9	14.7	1.27
Kevin Garnett	67	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	2	-11	16.7	13.7	3.05	16.9	12.5	4.43
Doug West	51	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	0	-7	16.4	15.4	1.07	15.8	15.9	-0.12
Stephon Marbury	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	1	-9	14.7	19.8	-5.10	15.8	16.0	-0.13

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Gamble	76	75	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.30	15	-8	23	16.3	13.7	2.54	15.8	16.9	-1.08
Michael Smith	54	54	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-1	9	17.7	13.2	4.50	15.1	17.3	-2.23
Tyus Edney	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-2	11	15.7	16.6	-0.89	15.4	18.8	-3.34
Mitch Richmond	79	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	5	-3	16.0	14.9	1.08	15.6	18.5	-2.83
Olden Polynice	58	60	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.22	4	3	1	14.7	17.9	-3.27	16.2	15.5	0.75
Duane Causwell	54	51	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	9	-11	16.6	14.7	1.95	17.3	14.3	2.97
Kevin Salvadori	12	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	7	-7	14.6	16.1	-1.47	15.7	16.0	-0.35
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	46	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	8	-9	13.9	17.8	-3.93	17.2	14.9	2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.73,1	93.1%
SEA 92, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.69,0.84,1	92.9%
CHA 87, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.83,0.84,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.83,1	92.9%