NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	7.9 [245]		MVP	Dell Curry (CHH): +26.1%
Charlotte Hornets	101		Comeback	2.9 [445]		LVP	Matt Geiger (CHH): -16.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	78%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.12,0	-0.01	0.03	0.01	15	59%	0.09	3	-0.08	11	82%	0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	14	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Bryant Stith	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	0.03	-0.06	0.04	14	59%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	17	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Brooks Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.26	0.26	-0.01	0.27	0.00	10	40%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	79%	0.06	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.05
Tony Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	9	57%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
George Zidek	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.05	0.01	17	58%	0.17	5	-0.18	9	78%	-0.03
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	-0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	18	39%	-0.07	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.13	-0.01	7	55%	-0.01	2	-0.15	8	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	27.5	14.8	25.3	1.8	39.2	135.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +58.3%

DEN -6.7%

CHH +30.0%

DEN -35.3%

CHH +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHH	NBA	DEN	CHH	NBA
this game	16.0	14.8	15.6	104.3	107.4	104.4
season	15.2	15.7		102.3	108.0
opponent	16.0	15.3		106.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	16.7	16.4	14.2	16.0
CHH	14.5	14.6	14.3	15.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	18	18	0.01	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	16.6	15.9	0.66	16.9	14.3	2.67
Antonio McDyess	64	62	-0.08	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-8	12	16.5	15.0	1.53	15.8	12.8	2.95
Brooks Thompson	16	17	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	5	-14	17.6	15.7	1.94	10.6	15.7	-5.05
Mark Jackson	85	86	-0.35	-0.16	-0.20	-0.38	1	-5	6	15.5	21.1	-5.58	14.9	13.6	1.27
Dale Ellis	87	87	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-3	2	16.0	16.0	0.02	14.4	19.4	-5.01
Bryant Stith	88	89	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-6	8	15.9	17.6	-1.67	14.9	13.6	1.25
LaPhonso Ellis	70	72	-0.46	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	4	-12	16.2	15.4	0.78	14.7	15.2	-0.52
Tom Hammonds	37	39	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	6	-16	15.2	16.6	-1.38	14.7	14.9	-0.21

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Smith	53	50	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.21	18	-14	32	13.9	15.9	-1.93	15.5	16.6	-1.08
Anthony Mason	91	90	0.59	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-4	12	14.7	17.3	-2.63	16.3	9.0	7.26
Dell Curry	48	51	0.45	0.06	0.39	0.54	-3	7	-10	15.8	13.7	2.14	16.8	15.1	1.73
Glen Rice	87	86	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	5	-6	14.9	13.3	1.62	15.9	17.7	-1.83
Malik Rose	47	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-7	18	14.4	15.1	-0.68	16.4	15.6	0.77
Scott Burrell	53	49	0.16	0.35	-0.19	-0.19	12	-8	20	13.6	16.3	-2.63	15.4	16.7	-1.21
Matt Geiger	48	47	0.07	0.44	-0.37	0.33	-9	13	-22	15.3	14.3	1.03	15.6	16.4	-0.82
George Zidek	2	2	-0.05	0.56	-0.61	0.01	-2	6	-8	14.5	14.8	-0.29	6.0	16.2	-10.24
Muggsy Bogues	41	43	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.18	-14	18	-32	15.9	13.9	1.93	16.6	15.5	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.71,0.32,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 106, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.76,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	89.8%
ATL 101, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.4,0.5,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.55,0.42,1	89.7%
DEN 87, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.79,0.55,0.72,1	89.4%