NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	86		Excitement	5.7 [639]		MVP	Horace Grant (ORL): +18.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	82		Comeback	1.0 [648]		LVP	Danny Ferry (CLE): -18.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	13	78%	0.21	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.03	6	75%	0.15	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.04
Darrell Armstrong	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	5	62%	0.11	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.07
Gerald Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	69%	0.09	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Amal McCaskill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	8	38%	-0.06	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	11	65%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.01	15	59%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.06	2	-0.06	9	33%	-0.10
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	23	43%	-0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.06	0.05	10	45%	-0.07	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	27.2	14.8	24.2	2.3	32.3	125.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.9%

ORL +27.6%

ORL +3.9%

CLE -24.0%

ORL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.6	98.9	93.2	104.4
season	16.4	17.8		102.9	102.1
opponent	16.1	15.5		100.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	18.8	18.3	17.3	17.4
CLE	17.3	14.8	12.5	17.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	49	49	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-9	22	17.4	17.5	-0.11	15.8	15.1	0.65
Darrell Armstrong	42	42	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-6	16	18.5	16.4	2.10	16.1	14.9	1.16
Horace Grant	79	80	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	0	4	17.6	16.1	1.44	15.6	14.1	1.50
David Vaughn	34	35	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.17	4	0	4	18.8	16.5	2.28	15.5	15.5	0.09
Nick Anderson	70	71	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	4	-4	17.0	19.2	-2.16	15.1	17.2	-2.09
Gerald Wilkins	66	67	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	5	-6	17.0	18.8	-1.75	14.7	18.1	-3.42
Brian Shaw	56	57	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	8	-12	16.9	18.4	-1.53	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Rony Seikaly	35	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	7	-10	17.1	17.7	-0.54	17.0	14.5	2.46
Amal McCaskill	4	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	7	-10	17.0	17.5	-0.46	11.2	15.7	-4.44

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark West	31	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.04	5	-9	14	16.5	14.9	1.64	17.6	17.3	0.30
Reggie Geary	6	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	14.7	15.5	-0.88	20.0	17.2	2.75
Bob Sura	12	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	0	-4	15.2	15.5	-0.28	19.1	17.2	1.89
Chris Mills	75	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-10	16	15.8	13.8	1.93	17.1	19.6	-2.56
Tyrone Hill	74	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.32	3	-7	10	15.6	15.1	0.50	17.2	18.8	-1.57
Terrell Brandon	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-7	10	15.6	15.1	0.53	16.9	19.9	-2.99
Vitaly Potapenko	15	14	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	3	-10	15.0	15.6	-0.59	18.4	17.3	1.10
Antonio Lang	26	24	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	7	-18	15.6	15.4	0.18	18.3	17.1	1.24
Bobby Phills	74	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	15.2	17.2	-2.05	17.6	16.4	1.18
Danny Ferry	56	56	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.33	-9	5	-14	14.9	16.5	-1.54	17.4	17.5	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 90, MIN 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	93.8%
MIN 101, MEM 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	93.6%
DET 80, TOR 72	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.37,0.31,0.16,0.09,0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.5%